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WarGamer

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Name: J
Gender: Male
Hometown: SoCal
Home country: USA
Current location: Socal
Member since: Mon Feb 1, 2021, 08:27 PM
Number of posts: 7,443

Journal Archives

Fill your tank... oil prices just jumped 2.3% on the Poland explosion news.

The price of oil has already reacted to the incident, climbing 2.3 percent to $87.82 according to the West Texas Intermediate benchmark.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1697080/russia-poland-missle-dead-NATO-state-Ukraine-war-pictures-world-war-3

Polish Reporting: Ukrainian interceptors struck missile that landed in Poland.

Just pulled this off of a Mil Intel Discord channel I belong to...

As soon as I have a concrete link, will add the source.

Weak GOP Majority empowers "Freedom Caucus"... McCarthy "Sad".

To secure the votes of Jim Jordan and Company, he'll have to agree to stuff like Biden Investigations, etc... indeed the weaker the majority the more important the far right becomes.


https://www.axios.com/2022/11/10/kevin-mccarthy-house-speaker-votes

The state of play: Republicans will hold their leadership elections next week. McCarthy just needs a majority to vote, by secret ballot, to reelect him as leader.

The real challenge is when the whole House votes to elect the speaker. He'll need practically his whole conference to stick together and back him then – and that vote is public.

What they're saying: Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), coming out of a meeting of the right-wing House Freedom Caucus on Thursday, told Axios "no one currently has 218" votes to become speaker in a vote of the full House.

Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), who is openly opposing McCarthy, told Axios he's "confirmed with many people that ... there will be a challenge" to McCarthy at next week's GOP leadership elections.

"I think he's in deep trouble ... him prevailing on the floor of the House is going to be very difficult," said former Trump official Russ Vought while coming out of the Freedom Caucus meeting.

Sam Bankman-Fried's fall cuts off big source of funds for US Democrats

This is a major scandal, wouldn't be surprised if it turns into a House Investigation IF the GOP takes control OR if the Democrats keep control.

Bankman-Fried started the "Protect our Future" PAC, promising 1 Billion dollars in donations if Trump ran in 2024.

In 2022, Bankman-Fried was the Democrats largest donor behind only George Soros.

Jeff Hauser, director of the left-leaning Revolving Door Project, said that Democratic politicians who worked closely with Bankman-Fried will have much to explain to the progressive wing of the party.

“A lot of people in the Democratic party got really close to Sam Bankman-Fried, and it reflects very badly on people who took this guy seriously,” he said. “People who in their past lives have taken on corporate power have been bedazzled by money seemingly being thrown their way.”


Bankman-Fried was the primary funder of the Protect Our Future PAC, which spent tens of millions of dollars in Democratic primaries this year. He also floated the idea of spending upwards of $1 billion in the 2024 presidential election to beat Donald Trump if he were the Republican nominee.

It has all the hallmarks of a blockbuster. Billions in missing money, Tens of Billions in cryptocurrency reduced in value to pennies on the dollar. And political connections at the top of DC.








Sam Bankman-Fried stormed on to the US political scene with multimillion-dollar donations that led lawmakers, particularly Democrats, to believe he was ushering in the next generation of donors. But in a matter of days, his business empire collapsed into bankruptcy and the prospect of millions more in donations evaporated.

Before the fall of Bankman-Fried’s cryptocurrency exchange FTX, the entrepreneur had emerged as the second-largest donor to Democrats after George Soros. He had vowed to give up to $1bn to political candidates linked to causes he supported, a pledge from which he later backed away.

https://www.ft.com/content/428c7800-c72d-4c59-9940-4376fea6e263
https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/11/10/washington-dcs-buddy-sam-bankman-fried-has-some-explaining-to-do/

My former Rep, Mike Garcia (R) has claimed victory in Ca-27

I adopted Julia Brownley in my newly drawn District...

Garcia is up by like 16k which is a ton. Brownley is up by 10k over the GOP'er and she's got it for sure.

I'm trying to wrap my head around some polling irregularities... re Trump and the GOP

Emerson College, in the last several weeks began including a hypothetical Trump vs Biden question to their polls.

Trump polled well... winning a lot of States by 10+, tied in PA and leading in WI, AZ and GA.

Trump endorsed clowns failed miserably this week.

First, one could just say the poll is garbage. Maybe it is. Emerson 2022 polls were solidly 2-5% too high for GOP'ers

But what's the deal?

Does Trump poll better than the GOP as as whole? Are there a subsection of voters who will only come out for Trump?

As I read the news... everyone tells me how toxic Trump is. And logically... I agree.

But then... there are those polls.

Here's a random story from Colorado:

https://kdvr.com/news/politics/election/poll-coloradans-choose-biden-trump-gains-independent-support/

DENVER (KDVR) — More Coloradans say they would vote for President Joe Biden than former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, but the difference has narrowed over the last month.

The results of the FOX31 / Channel 2 / Emerson College Polling / The Hill Colorado poll conducted Oct. 26-29 show a plurality of voters would choose Biden.

Poll: Polis maintains double-digit lead over Ganahl in race for Colorado governor
Among voters of all political affiliations, 46.6% of respondents said they would reelect the incumbent Democratic president in 2024 if it were a choice between him and the Republican former president. Meanwhile, 39.4% said they would vote for Trump.

In the last month, both men have increased the share of Colorado voters who would cast a ballot for them, although Trump’s gain has been larger.




I just realized it... it isn't performative art or insanity. Lake is applying for a JOB!!

Caught some of her utterings on TV... really bat excrement stuff...

Then it hit me. After she loses, she's got dibs on the Trump VP-stakes.

Part of wargaming is putting yourself in the place of the loser.

Sometimes for fun you place yourself in the position of let's say...

Napoleon at Waterloo... or Lee at Gettysburg or a German General at Stalingrad.

You look at what they had to work with and postulate how they could have proceeded.

But If you put yourself in the position of titular head of the GOP TODAY in need of electoral wins in 2024 and beyond...

Damn, I'd rather be Napoleon.



Seriously. The GOP is dealing with problems that are seemingly insurmountable. The first problem is the Orange Thing. He's toxic and turns off like 70% of the population. Problem #2, Problem #1 is the most powerful force in the Party. Problem #3, demographics are working against the GOP. Problem #4, the GOP has a serious problem with women. Problem #5, the inmates are running the asylum. Previous GOP iterations have managed to keep the crazy pretty much under lock and key. Problem #6, Guns. Guns kill. GOP are very anti-crime but unwilling to attack the primary cause.



Seriously. Give me Napoleon's position and situation on June 18, 1815 and I'll rout the Coalition Armies more easily than I could devise a way for the GOP to win in 2024 or after.

Rep Sean Patrick Maloney becomes first DCCC Chair to lose election since 1980

Can't believe that NY was responsible for most of the pain in the House...


https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2022-midterm-election/

NOV. 9, 4:32 PM
(R) KEY RACE PROJECTED

ABC News is reporting that Republicans are projected to win two more seats in New York, which is turning into arguably the second-best state for the GOP in terms of House gains, after Florida. First, Republican Michael Lawler has just edged out Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney in the 17th District, a noteworthy result given Maloney led the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee this cycle, making him responsible for directing party efforts to defend the party’s House majority. This is the first time a DCCC chair has lost a general election since 1980

My takeaway from last night. There are fewer ideologically flexible voters than ever before.

In 2022 there really are very few undecideds.

You've got two immovable objects.

It's funny to look back...

Look at the landslides of Nixon and Reagan.

Look at the near-landslides of Obama (x2)

People left their bias and ideology "comfort zones"...

For the foreseeable future we're now looking at WW1-like trench warfare... trenches on the left and trenches on the right and no one is crossing over.

Soldiers who wanted water didn't cross over to the other sides trench... they just went without water. Voters who don't like inflation didn't abandon their core philosophies to support GOP'ers.
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