I seriously think we are seeing the beginning of America seperating into two or three countries.

[kurt_cagle]

286. Generations and Fourth Turning

Fourth Turning's definitely worth reading as well. I do think that both Strauss and Howe did have a tendency to cherry pick data points to fit the theory, rather than vice versa, but overall there is some merit to the approach. I use the year 1999 as the dividing line between the Millennials (1980) and what I call the Virtuals, which puts the GenXers starting about 1962 or so and the Boomers into 1944, which fits temperament more consistently than where the demographics sit. It also means that the leading edge of the Boomers are now entering retirement.

We're not in the crisis period yet, but heading there fast. At this stage we're in the societal distrust phase - there's a loss of confidence in our social, government and business institutions, there is no trust in the value of money or those who handle it, it's difficult to push things through politically in one direction or another because there is no one dominant political force or will. Conservatives become radicalized because the world that they know is falling apart, and what had worked previously no longer does, and their natural reaction is towards xenophobia, generalized persecution complexes, and paranoid schizophrenia. Progressives on the other hand feel frustrated because they recognize the need for reform in the system but they can't get the momentum going to make it happen, and there is no compromise in the political forums.

The leading edge of the boomers will become more impotent over time, and the dominance of the Baby Boom generation in politics will go from conducting it to reacting to it (consider that the peak of that movement is now past the midway point). Behind them you have the GenXers now entering into the political sphere. The GenXers for the most part are less political and more technically oriented and generally much more introverted. Obama is actually a pretty classic GenXer, even though he's on the cusp. He was thirteen when the Vietnam War ended, came of age with the rise of the personal computer and networking, and has a far more technically oriented mindset than either Bush or, for that matter, Clinton, who was frequently tweaked for his "wonkiness". He's certainly more technically oriented than Romney, who is a classic Baby Boomer management type (he was born in 1947, almost a full generation apart).