General Discussion

unc70

(6,507 posts)

46. Try tropical tidbits.com

Sun Sep 9, 2018, 09:36 PM

Sep 2018

It has all the model data, hurricane hunter observations, and lots more. Most of the computer models have been converging, though everywhere from Savanah to Hatteras is in the 68% cone of uncertainty. The European ensemble still has a wide set of solutions.

The GFS has been really weird. In the recent run, it has Florence stalling as it approaches NC with 140 knot winds, coming ashore a few miles while churning around as a Cat 2/3 with 15-30 inches of rain, then reversing course and heading back towards Bermuda! Doesn't seem likely to me, but stranger things have happened.

All of the models look really bad for most of NC. Sort of a combination of Fran and Floyd, with a bit of Hazel.

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

46 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Florence Forecast To Become A Major Hurricane; Risk To The East Coast Is Rising [View all] liberal N proud Sep 2018 OP

First thing, check the beer supply Jersey Devil Sep 2018 #1

Stocked up today liberal N proud Sep 2018 #2

Fill up the bathtub with water the day before it hits. joshcryer Sep 2018 #3

Why not buy and fill 5 gallon jugs? nt Blue_true Sep 2018 #6

Bathtub is a big 50-100 gallon "jug." joshcryer Sep 2018 #7

Don't forget the 40 gallons in your safeinOhio Sep 2018 #8

Wow. Good for you. PCIntern Sep 2018 #44

And, Washing hands & whatever! I don't have a bathtub so I bought Cha Sep 2018 #14

Is bathtub where you hide from tornadoes? unc70 Sep 2018 #15

That is true enough. joshcryer Sep 2018 #16

Moonshine is more compact Lochloosa Sep 2018 #4

I don't drink beer. Blue_true Sep 2018 #5

Your favorite pastries malaise Sep 2018 #9

I guess that I have a problem. Blue_true Sep 2018 #22

You can toast in the grill malaise Sep 2018 #25

Yep. Forgot that. Pan toast over the grill. Blue_true Sep 2018 #31

A small propane grill or a coal pot work fine malaise Sep 2018 #33

Buy Coors, Bud or Miller... They're not beer :-D TheBlackAdder Sep 2018 #10

Lol. Nt BootinUp Sep 2018 #11

No thanks, I never got into drinking pee. nt Blue_true Sep 2018 #23

Charging and loading up the Kindles Hortensis Sep 2018 #27

The kindle sounds good. Charge your husband by the shot for the hard liquor, though. nt Blue_true Sep 2018 #32

Lol. He gets sick as a dog with much more than one drink. Hortensis Sep 2018 #35

Preparations not just for the coast unc70 Sep 2018 #12

Looking more like NC this morning malaise Sep 2018 #19

Latest model runs look bad unc70 Sep 2018 #20

European model forecast? OneGrassRoot Sep 2018 #45

Try tropical tidbits.com unc70 Sep 2018 #46

The last forecast I saw at 11 PM EST had the cone over the entirety of ENC and into SC ooky Sep 2018 #13

Looking at the spaghetti models one has a worst case stall over NC. joshcryer Sep 2018 #17

Luckily, Trump and his crack team of emergency responders is on it... unitedwethrive Sep 2018 #18

Makes me feel safer knowing... jcgoldie Sep 2018 #28

And don't forget Hurricane Olivia is about to slam into Hawaii krispos42 Sep 2018 #21

It's that upper level high fooking up everything. peekaloo Sep 2018 #24

Florence is now a hurricane malaise Sep 2018 #26

Depending on your layout, consider draining a foot or so from your pool, if you have one. dameatball Sep 2018 #29

System in Gulf has 20% chance of forming Gothmog Sep 2018 #30

It's affecting our South-West right now but we haven thunder and lightning in Kingston malaise Sep 2018 #34

Congrats on SOME rain. Hortensis Sep 2018 #36

Isaac is heading our way according to the experts malaise Sep 2018 #37

Yes. Thank goodness for modern surveillance. Hortensis Sep 2018 #38

We have come a long way re hurricane warnings malaise Sep 2018 #39

You live a bit closer to nature than some. Hortensis Sep 2018 #40

I can understand their decision until a tornado draws near malaise Sep 2018 #41

Exactly. Hortensis Sep 2018 #42

We have more hurricane threats than hurricanes. The last really big one was Gilbert, 30 years ago malaise Sep 2018 #43