Hillary Clinton: Stacey Abrams should be governor in Georgia right now.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. 42% self-identified conservatives prevented Hillary from winning Georgia

Simply too much of a gap down to the 22% liberals. Not exactly complicated. In the decades I have followed this we have never won a state in which that gap was greater than 11%. Hillary lost Georgia by more than 230,000 votes compared to roughly a 55,000 deficit for Abrams in 2018.

The number of liberals is going up. That is the great news. That is the reason some of these states like Arizona and Georgia are now in play. Arizona reported 40% conservatives in 2016. Normally that wouldn't be close to competitive. But since the number of liberals soared all the way up to 27%, now we aren't far from that 11% gap.

Contrast to when I started following this and the number of liberals nationally was always in the 20-21% range. I was shocked when it reached 26% in 2016, despite the electoral loss. That was easily the greatest untold story of that cycle. Then 2018 followed with 27% despite an electorate that is older and more white than presidential years.

All the long terms trends are positive. But ousting an incumbent is the single most difficult task in American politics, if that incumbent's party has held power only one term. There is more benefit of a doubt than there should be, no matter what it looks like.

We need to get Georgia and Texas and Arizona below 40% conservatives. That can happen as the older generation is replaced by blue generations voting more dependably, along with new registers favoring our side. Currently Arizona is 40%, Georgia 42% and Texas 44%.