Donald Trump Appears to Be Playing a Vicious Game.

[Drunken Irishman]

60. Trump is a moron. He lucked out in 2016 and is convinced he can play by the same rules.

I am not saying it can't work again - but it's clear he's running the same playbook that got him into office. The problem is that the entirety of his 2016 playbook was sheer luck. It was the perfect storm. And even then, he barely won.

The problem Trump faces going into the heart of 2020 is that what got him into the White House in 2016 isn't going to keep him in the White House. Think about Obama in 2008 compared to Obama in 2012. Obama had to radically adjust his message because he wasn't running as an outsider anymore promising change. Obama was the status quo in 2012 and he had to sell the idea that the status quo was better than the alternative (as opposed to 2008 when the alternative was the status quo). So, he successfully adjusted his message and won a second term because of it.

Trump's not an outsider anymore. He's now the status quo of American politics. For a huge chunk of this country, the alternative to that is likely more appealing than his outsider image was to the status quo in 2016. I remember a lot of indifferent voters who thought Trump would mellow once he got into office. But now we're seeing the reality and that reality is devastating.

Sure, there are voters who voted for Trump because they knew they'd get what we have right now. But they don't count. Those voters are going to stay with him no matter what. He could get on TV and say, "I really don't care if the old people die..." and his loyal base would eat it up as him being real and telling it like it is.

But there is, believe it or not, a sliver of Trump voters, probably the total margin Hillary lost Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan in 2016, who wanted change (likely why they voted Obama in 2008) and because of that, reluctantly supported Trump on the hope he could change things up but that he'd likely tone down his rhetoric. I worked with one of these women. I remember having a discussion before the election how I'm embarrassed about the possibility of his tweets as president and her exact response to me was that he wouldn't tweet like that when president. I haven't followed up with her to see if she's still a Trump supporter but I believe there was this idea that he'd be humbled by the office.

Well now we know that isn't the case. The big difference Trump is facing in 2020 that he didn't face in 2016 is that he's NOW president. There's no hypothetical of what he'd do as president. We're seeing it. This can be both a blessing and a curse for incumbents. For Trump, it's proving a bit of a curse.

His problem is that he has never adjusted that playbook because he's under the impression that since it won him the White House in 2016, it'll win him reelection in 2020.

But the polls are showing something completely different. It also doesn't account for a good amount of sideline voters, those who sat out 2016, deciding to throw their support to, say, Biden, because they've seen firsthand how not voting has damaged the country. Again, those voters likely thought Trump wouldn't be as bad as people thought, or said, he could be. But now that isn't an argument. He's been bad.

So, Trump goes off on the Michigan governor knowing his BASE will love it.

But Michigan was never Trump's base. He won the state by a paltry 11,000 or so votes. Most of those 11,000+ votes are not Trump's base. His thinking that is dangerous for his reelection campaign.

But he's too stupid to realize it because he can't fathom that changing. He's the type of person who will drive drunk, not get pulled over, and conclude he can continue driving drunk because, well, he hasn't crashed or gotten a DUI yet! But then the luck runs out and he forgets to stop all the way at the stop sign, gets pulled over and gets a DUI.