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Azathoth

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14. OK, since we're all stuck at home, here is what it looks like

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 07:47 PM

Apr 2020

https://imgur.com/hafZmLL

This is a rough SIR model for COVID19 with R{0} = 1.5 and a 14-day infectious period.

Pay attention to the blue curve. That's the infected population at time t. At its peak, the US is looking at almost 25 million infected people, increasing by somewhere between 500,000 to almost a million a day. The country has less than 100,000 hospital beds in total.

Herd immunity kicks in meaningfully where the other two lines cross.

R{0} of 1.5 *while under lockdown* is very, very not good.

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Dr. Birx on CV-19 R-Naught values [View all] Shermann Apr 2020 OP

If you bring it down to 1.3 to 1.5, then aggressive contact tracing will bring it down even more Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2020 #1

I don't believe those are related in the way you describe Shermann Apr 2020 #4

Question of resources. You're right that at some point the case load exceeds tracing capabilities.nt Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2020 #5

Also the virus seemed to go right around contact tracing in Washington State Shermann Apr 2020 #9

It seems to me BGBD Apr 2020 #17

You mean FASTER exponential growth. 1.3 still grows exponentially! nt Shermann Apr 2020 #18

ok. BGBD Apr 2020 #21

+1, ... or until we have a proper amount of sample testing / isolation and tracing done like uponit7771 Apr 2020 #36

Contact tracing with airborne respiratory viral diseases is also extremely hard, it is not at all Celerity Apr 2020 #33

1.5 is horrendous with this level of lockdown Azathoth Apr 2020 #2

Seems that way Shermann Apr 2020 #3

This is not true. R0 is not the only factor. Pobeka Apr 2020 #6

It's very true and you're proving my point Azathoth Apr 2020 #7

We'll just have to disagree. Pobeka Apr 2020 #11

OK, since we're all stuck at home, here is what it looks like Azathoth Apr 2020 #14

R{0} of 1.5 is probably optimistic Shermann Apr 2020 #15

How did you calculate the Beta and Gamma values? Shermann Apr 2020 #24

R naught is beta over gamma Azathoth Apr 2020 #28

THIS !!!! This should be its own OP, its great to have smart people. IF we're R0 1.2 during lockdown uponit7771 Apr 2020 #32

The peak of the SIR model seems to be 4 months out Shermann Apr 2020 #25

+1, I was looking at IHME and it looks at peak deaths not rate of increase just deaths uponit7771 Apr 2020 #34

I haven't looked at the details of the current models, but I'm guessng one of three things Azathoth Apr 2020 #37

Here is a simulation with R{6} Shermann Apr 2020 #38

I think the poster has ***FACTORED IN*** 160 million people, that will take 1 yr is to get to uponit7771 Apr 2020 #31

Herd immunity is not the way...ask the UK Shermann Apr 2020 #8

No one knows about herd immunity levels, until there is adequate testing. Pobeka Apr 2020 #12

Trump won't wait for herd immunity. Trump won't wait for a vaccine. Shermann Apr 2020 #13

The good news is BGBD Apr 2020 #19

Yeah the press asked for clarification on this "decision" that is supposedly his Shermann Apr 2020 #20

Maybe he thinks BGBD Apr 2020 #22

Just posted this in another thread, but well worth the read DeminPennswoods Apr 2020 #10

Or it will gut punch us once Fall hits JCMach1 Apr 2020 #16

Love the pop up expert motif HarlanPepper Apr 2020 #23

Let's toss this little wrinkle into the conversation: Squinch Apr 2020 #26

sounds like shes deliberately talking over trump*s head... samnsara Apr 2020 #27

She is also trying to talk over the reporters heads and filibustering when it comes to testing uponit7771 Apr 2020 #30

This message was self-deleted by its author uponit7771 Apr 2020 #29

K&R, SIP with sick people only gets us more sick people howbeit slower. There were no isolation uponit7771 Apr 2020 #35