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samnsara

(18,718 posts)

27. sounds like shes deliberately talking over trump*s head...

Reply to Shermann (Original post)

Sat Apr 11, 2020, 06:45 AM

Apr 2020

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Dr. Birx on CV-19 R-Naught values [View all] Shermann Apr 2020 OP

If you bring it down to 1.3 to 1.5, then aggressive contact tracing will bring it down even more Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2020 #1

I don't believe those are related in the way you describe Shermann Apr 2020 #4

Question of resources. You're right that at some point the case load exceeds tracing capabilities.nt Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2020 #5

Also the virus seemed to go right around contact tracing in Washington State Shermann Apr 2020 #9

It seems to me BGBD Apr 2020 #17

You mean FASTER exponential growth. 1.3 still grows exponentially! nt Shermann Apr 2020 #18

ok. BGBD Apr 2020 #21

+1, ... or until we have a proper amount of sample testing / isolation and tracing done like uponit7771 Apr 2020 #36

Contact tracing with airborne respiratory viral diseases is also extremely hard, it is not at all Celerity Apr 2020 #33

1.5 is horrendous with this level of lockdown Azathoth Apr 2020 #2

Seems that way Shermann Apr 2020 #3

This is not true. R0 is not the only factor. Pobeka Apr 2020 #6

It's very true and you're proving my point Azathoth Apr 2020 #7

We'll just have to disagree. Pobeka Apr 2020 #11

OK, since we're all stuck at home, here is what it looks like Azathoth Apr 2020 #14

R{0} of 1.5 is probably optimistic Shermann Apr 2020 #15

How did you calculate the Beta and Gamma values? Shermann Apr 2020 #24

R naught is beta over gamma Azathoth Apr 2020 #28

THIS !!!! This should be its own OP, its great to have smart people. IF we're R0 1.2 during lockdown uponit7771 Apr 2020 #32

The peak of the SIR model seems to be 4 months out Shermann Apr 2020 #25

+1, I was looking at IHME and it looks at peak deaths not rate of increase just deaths uponit7771 Apr 2020 #34

I haven't looked at the details of the current models, but I'm guessng one of three things Azathoth Apr 2020 #37

Here is a simulation with R{6} Shermann Apr 2020 #38

I think the poster has ***FACTORED IN*** 160 million people, that will take 1 yr is to get to uponit7771 Apr 2020 #31

Herd immunity is not the way...ask the UK Shermann Apr 2020 #8

No one knows about herd immunity levels, until there is adequate testing. Pobeka Apr 2020 #12

Trump won't wait for herd immunity. Trump won't wait for a vaccine. Shermann Apr 2020 #13

The good news is BGBD Apr 2020 #19

Yeah the press asked for clarification on this "decision" that is supposedly his Shermann Apr 2020 #20

Maybe he thinks BGBD Apr 2020 #22

Just posted this in another thread, but well worth the read DeminPennswoods Apr 2020 #10

Or it will gut punch us once Fall hits JCMach1 Apr 2020 #16

Love the pop up expert motif HarlanPepper Apr 2020 #23

Let's toss this little wrinkle into the conversation: Squinch Apr 2020 #26

sounds like shes deliberately talking over trump*s head... samnsara Apr 2020 #27

She is also trying to talk over the reporters heads and filibustering when it comes to testing uponit7771 Apr 2020 #30

This message was self-deleted by its author uponit7771 Apr 2020 #29

K&R, SIP with sick people only gets us more sick people howbeit slower. There were no isolation uponit7771 Apr 2020 #35