General Discussion
Showing Original Post only (View all)Prediction: The polls are significantly overestimating Trump [View all]
After 2016, pollsters adjusted their methods to weigh more heavily to Trump supporters. After seeing the massive early voting turnout so far and the huge amounts of money being raised by Democrats compared to Trump being nearly bankrupt, I predict that polls are overestimating Trump. I think Trump's bizarre behavior, the pandemic, the state of the economy, and all these threats if violence and refusing to leave office has a lot of people fed up with Trump. They will be very motivated to just get someone normal into office.
I think when we look back at this election, we will say "in reality it was never even close and Trump's threats about staying in office were never going to happen due to his extreme unpopularity." I believe the polls are off in the opposite direction as 2016 and that people will one day see a Trump loss in 2020 as an inevitability.
EDIT: I should also add that I think the Supreme Court stuff is going to push a lot of people over to Biden out of fear of too much Republican power to the list of reasons