How a Romney Loss Would Impact the GOP [View all]

By Reid Wilson

How a Romney Loss Would Impact the GOP

Look for a sharp right turn away from the party establishment and its chosen candidate.

Today, the media and their pollsters are to blame for Mitt Romney's political troubles, according to Romney's fans. But if Romney does lose this year, blame will quickly shift to the Republican presidential nominee himself, his shortcomings, and his ability to articulate a conservative vision for the country. And the fallout from a Romney loss has the potential to reverberate through the Republican Party for a decade.

Had you told any Democratic political strategist a year ago that the unemployment rate in September 2012 would stand at 8.1 percent, he or she would have thrown up their hands in despair. President Obama, conventional wisdom held, would be headed to certain defeat.

But six weeks from Election Day, the picture is very different. Obama's approval ratings are on the rise, positive economic news hints at a recovery in the housing market and a slightly brighter jobs picture, and state-by-state polling shows Obama ahead of Republican nominee Mitt Romney in virtually every battleground state by significant margins. Even the dreaded enthusiasm gap, which showed Republican voters more likely to head to the polls than Democrats this year, is fading as more Democrats tune in.

Conservative pundits have blamed a complicit media; even pollsters are suspect. Every poll's sample composition is scrutinized for the slightest perceived irregularity. But if Romney does lose, Republicans will be forced to contemplate how their candidate blew the best opportunity to defeat an incumbent president since 1980. And while anger focuses elsewhere now, the blame will surely shift to Romney himself, and his backers within the Washington

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