Last edited Mon Mar 7, 2022, 08:05 AM - Edit history (1)
I voted for 'something else' in your poll, Colin. The top two choices I feel are not possible, while a 'no' needs be caveated, as below.
I hope the Ukraine can force a stalemate within a few months, where russia will somehow bow out with several southern & eastern cities in its craw, a bit of egg on its face, and a clever concoction making it seem they are doves with olive branches. A stalemate would likely be a WIN for the Ukraine.
A stalemate is a result where neither side can make any further meaningful progress in the war (on edit: without suffering inordinately high losses for any subsequent gain). The Ukraine cannot force russia back out of russian occupied territory, except on a temporary hit or miss scale. Russia will eventually lay full siege to Kiev, and 'hopefully' other major cities which are not overrun in short order, and that might be that, the Ukraine sues for peace. Depends on how long the sieges last, and how much damage Ukrainian counterattacks do to the invaders.
If Putin deems the siege too long and costly (ha) he might do as I said above, and see that with solid world wide support going against him, a crumbling economy, larger than expected military losses, that the war is stalemated, and an expedited exit based on some specious pretext might return to russia some of the status quo ante bellum (condition prior to war).
A stalemate would be a WIN for the Ukraine. I think it is the best they can hope for against overwhelming russian strength. Ukrainian resistance will likely wane over time.
A stalemate could be twisted into a win for putin by sophistry, in that he might accomplish 90% of his goals and be satisfied with half a loaf. World opinion would still be against the invasion and subjugation of the half loaf, but that too, sadly to say, would wane.
The first gulf war was a stalemate as well as a decisive win for the United States. Kuwait was restored, but to capture saddam was deemed by HWBush as too costly to continue, thus a flimsy stalemate. Often wars end this way.
Bellum da svedanya.
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