Poll -- A friend asked me if I thought Putin would use Nuclear weapons? ...

[struggle4progress]

6. Almost nobody really wants a nuclear war; and that will be as true of Russians

as anyone else anywhere else

Even among ardent nationalists of any stripe, you will find many who understand that a certain informed realism is essential to advancing their own interests and their own country's interests: so it will be reasonable to expect that there exist many patriotic Russians who will recoil with horror from the prospect of nuclear exchanges

Russian politics is likely to be as complicated as politics anywhere -- and that means (among other things) that actual power will not always follow the official organization charts. To use various nuclear weapons, will require various levels of consent and action from different people, regardless of the official power structure: Putin doesn't transport, aim, and fire them himself

Unofficial contacts are important in the modern world; people can have personal friends that are not official friends; and this matters

I do not think we can predict the future; but I think we can profitably play the probabilities, as long as we update our estimates as frequently and accurately as we can