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General Discussion

LiberteToujours

(747 posts)

22. Here's some explanation

Reply to freshwest (Reply #15)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 02:41 AM

Oct 2012

Is Intrade saying Obama has 63.6% of the vote, although other polls are keeping it at around 50%?

Intrade is saying there is a 63.6% chance of Obama winning the election (270 or more electoral votes); not that he will get 63.6% of the vote. Well, it's a betting website, so those are the odds on Obama winning, it's not statistical analysis.

The 93% and 98% are a separate analysis from some professor stating what he believes the odds are of Obama winning based on various statistical methods.

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10/30 Nate's 538, OBAMA: 299, RMONEY: 239 - 77% to 23% --- Sam Wang Obama: 305 Romney: 233 (Links) [View all] Ellipsis Oct 2012 OP

Wow, what caused that jump? FVZA_Colonel Oct 2012 #1

Steady, positive numbers in VA and CO I would say.... ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2012 #2

Pulling out Gallup as an outlier I would think too and, perhaps? ... early voting idiocies. Ellipsis Oct 2012 #4

Mostly 2 new Ohio polls. gcomeau Oct 2012 #7

ahhh. Ellipsis Oct 2012 #11

With Quinnipiac to include, I can't wait to see what tomorrow looks like. FVZA_Colonel Oct 2012 #14

Every day now with no real change in the polls ought to move the odds up a few percent. reformist2 Oct 2012 #3

Thats exactly right Quixote1818 Oct 2012 #9

FWIW, Intrade has the chances at 63.6% vs. 36.4% now. :) reformist2 Oct 2012 #5

I don't understand these numbers. Or 'Random Drift 93%, Bayesian Prediction 98% ' freshwest Oct 2012 #15

63.6% is VEGAS odds. Ellipsis Oct 2012 #18

So the Princeton figures are the electoral votes but the Intrade give less odds? freshwest Oct 2012 #19

Nate Silver has a published formula which you can find on Wikepedia... Ellipsis Oct 2012 #20

Yeah, I'd seen Nate Wikipedia page a while back... It was 'Greek' to me. Thanks. freshwest Oct 2012 #21

It's more like Nate's 538 is a scientific assessment, and Intrade/Vegas is the "gut" feeling. reformist2 Oct 2012 #25

Here's some explanation LiberteToujours Oct 2012 #22

Perhaps Intrade has a source on committed electors. The ballots haven't been counted yet. freshwest Oct 2012 #23

Oh let it be. timlot Oct 2012 #6

It will be. GOTV. Ellipsis Oct 2012 #13

Thanks...I've gotten addicted to his site, as well as Sam Wang's....makes elections even more fun Rowdyboy Oct 2012 #8

I edited the OP to add the "Wangster" Ellipsis Oct 2012 #10

Hopefully Gallup does not come back bluestateguy Oct 2012 #12

woohoo mil_5529dem Oct 2012 #16

that Astrophysicist has it at Obam 278, Romney 256, Toss-Up 4 JI7 Oct 2012 #17

Nate Silver and Sam Wang need to stop bombarding America with all these facts and hard numbers Cali_Democrat Oct 2012 #24