Putin's Secret Attack Plan Would Be Ukrainian Nightmare

[Emrys]

47. It's worth considering for a minute what "taking control" of Eastern Europe

as you describe would involve.

It would mean either overcoming the armed forces of each country (and NATO for countries which are NATO members) or subduing and enlisting them to Putin's cause in order to impose some sort of order and proceed with the conquest. Invading a country is one thing. Running it is successfully is quite another.

Belarus - where Putin's dream is closest to realization on a small scale - is not cut and dried as a vassal state or ally. Its population is seriously divided and its current leadership's status is very precarious. Numerous members of its armed forces are already fighting Russia in Ukraine. Poland's a non-starter, and would crush Putin's forces (and Belarus's) quickly even without the wider involvement of NATO. Serbia and its neighbours have their own problems and no interest in the adventure. Hungary is dithering in its degree of engagement with the EU, and would be crushed by sanctions if it joined the RF cause. Does Putin look like enough of a winner right now to offer an enticing prospect for any prospective allies in Eastern Europe?

Having seen how the Russian Federation has treated the population and infrastructure in areas of Ukraine it has occupied for various periods - acts amounting genocide and numerous other horrible war crimes - do you imagine the people of any country are likely to be keen to join in on Putin's path to his grotesque dream other than a relatively few tankies and useful idiots?

Meanwhile, outer states of the Russian Federation are growing increasingly restless. It's only a matter of time before the Federation faces true existential challenges to its existence - but from within, not outside.