Is Fox's Ban Of Trump Temporary?

[Bernardo de La Paz]

3. If he's the nominee, they'll be behind him 110 percent

And I think he will be, to the Republicans everlasting regret.

De Santis would be foolish to run in 2024. He is young enough and is sitting pretty for 2028 if he lets the rump self-immolate in Nov 2024. He has written a book and is on a speaking tour for the future, but also he's preparing now just in case something happens in the next 12 months (likely) and the rump withdraws (unlikely).

The rump will likely face a field of also-rans. Nobody mooted about (Haley declared, Pompeo, Pence, Cruz, etc) has enough of a base to overcome the rump. The more who get in the race fracture the rump's opposition. Hence I think he will be their nominee.

I think the rump will get fewer general election votes than he did in 2016 and not enough Electoral College votes to become 47th. Even if there is no indictment. I think the rump will be indicted in 2023 and there does not have to be a trial in 2024 for indictment to be a proverbial bombshell and for it to be a big drag on his campaign. It won't budge the 30% Rs who are "to the death" rump lickers, but it will sway some leaners to vote D or to stay home.

I expect the Grand Old Party to fracture. Alternatively there is also a high likelihood it would wither away as decent people (mostly decent) abandon it. But I think fracture is more likely. I think the rump will run in 2028 as a third party candidate, unless he is convicted, which I think has a high likelihood.