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The end of coding as we know it: ChatGPT has come for software developers (Insider) [View all]
https://www.businessinsider.com/chatgpt-ai-technology-end-of-coding-software-developers-jobs-2023-4Archive page at https://archive.ph/7XceZ .
Please read all of this article, published this morning. I ran across a link to it in an Insider update on tech news at https://www.businessinsider.com/google-amazon-apple-chevy-microsoft-united-philadelphia-maine-2023-4 .
I don't even know where to begin to excerpt this, but maybe here...
-snip-
Coding, as an occupation, has long been considered a haven from the relentless advance of technology. Even as new gizmos replaced other jobs, the people who wrote the instructions for the machines felt untouchable. Universities rushed to expand their computer-science programs. Policymakers scrambling to futureproof the workforce stuck to one unwavering message: Learn to code! But in recent weeks, behind closed doors, I've heard many coders confess to a growing anxiety over the sudden advent of generative AI. Those who have been doing the automating fear they will soon be automated themselves. And if programmers aren't safe, who is?
Much has been written about how AI is coming for white-collar jobs. Researchers at OpenAI, which created ChatGPT, recently examined the degree to which large language models could perform the 19,000 tasks that make up the 1,000 occupations across the US economy. Their conclusion: 19% of workers hold jobs in which at least half their tasks could be completed by AI. The researchers also noted two patterns among the most vulnerable jobs: They require more education and come with big salaries. "We didn't think that would be the case," says Ethan Mollick, a professor of management at Wharton who studies innovation. "AI was always supposed to automate dangerous, dirty tasks — not the things we want to do."
But one white-collar skill set, the study found, is especially at risk for being automated: computer programming. The reason? Large language models like the one powering ChatGPT have been trained on huge repositories of code. Researchers at Microsoft and its subsidiary GitHub recently divided software developers into two groups — one with access to an AI coding assistant, and another without. Those assisted by AI were able to complete tasks 56% faster than the unassisted ones. "That's a big number," Mollick says. By comparison, the introduction of the steam engine in the mid-1800s boosted productivity at large factories by only 15%.
Tech companies have rushed to embrace generative AI, recognizing its ability to turbocharge programming. Amazon has built its own AI coding assistant, CodeWhisperer, and is encouraging its engineers to use it. Google is also asking its developers to try out new coding features in Bard, its ChatGPT competitor. Given the tech industry's rush to deploy AI, it's not hard to envision a near future in which we'll need half as many engineers as we have today — or, down the line, one-tenth or one-hundredth (Emad Mostaque, the CEO of Stability AI, has gone as far as predicting "there's no programmers in five years." ). For better or worse, the rise of AI effectively marks the end of coding as we know it.
-snip-
Coding, as an occupation, has long been considered a haven from the relentless advance of technology. Even as new gizmos replaced other jobs, the people who wrote the instructions for the machines felt untouchable. Universities rushed to expand their computer-science programs. Policymakers scrambling to futureproof the workforce stuck to one unwavering message: Learn to code! But in recent weeks, behind closed doors, I've heard many coders confess to a growing anxiety over the sudden advent of generative AI. Those who have been doing the automating fear they will soon be automated themselves. And if programmers aren't safe, who is?
Much has been written about how AI is coming for white-collar jobs. Researchers at OpenAI, which created ChatGPT, recently examined the degree to which large language models could perform the 19,000 tasks that make up the 1,000 occupations across the US economy. Their conclusion: 19% of workers hold jobs in which at least half their tasks could be completed by AI. The researchers also noted two patterns among the most vulnerable jobs: They require more education and come with big salaries. "We didn't think that would be the case," says Ethan Mollick, a professor of management at Wharton who studies innovation. "AI was always supposed to automate dangerous, dirty tasks — not the things we want to do."
But one white-collar skill set, the study found, is especially at risk for being automated: computer programming. The reason? Large language models like the one powering ChatGPT have been trained on huge repositories of code. Researchers at Microsoft and its subsidiary GitHub recently divided software developers into two groups — one with access to an AI coding assistant, and another without. Those assisted by AI were able to complete tasks 56% faster than the unassisted ones. "That's a big number," Mollick says. By comparison, the introduction of the steam engine in the mid-1800s boosted productivity at large factories by only 15%.
Tech companies have rushed to embrace generative AI, recognizing its ability to turbocharge programming. Amazon has built its own AI coding assistant, CodeWhisperer, and is encouraging its engineers to use it. Google is also asking its developers to try out new coding features in Bard, its ChatGPT competitor. Given the tech industry's rush to deploy AI, it's not hard to envision a near future in which we'll need half as many engineers as we have today — or, down the line, one-tenth or one-hundredth (Emad Mostaque, the CEO of Stability AI, has gone as far as predicting "there's no programmers in five years." ). For better or worse, the rise of AI effectively marks the end of coding as we know it.
-snip-
That's less than 1/4 of the article. All well worth reading.
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