How useful are early summer polls? About as useful as a groundhog with the weather.

[FBaggins]

3. Sez me...

… me and all of campaign experts who spend millions upon millions of dollars every cycle in gathering and evaluating that data.

The story is always the same… just the actors change. The team that is ahead says “polls don’t matter… don’t get complacent… we need to turn out!” - and the team that is behind says “polls don’t matter - they’re biased/wrong/whatever - we need to turn out!”

Yet those polls are incredibly useful to them.

The sad thing on this topic is that you don’t really need to look at the polls. You can just watch which sides’ advocates are making each of those arguments… and you can tell what the polls say