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Pototan

(1,709 posts)
Thu Aug 8, 2024, 06:46 AM Aug 8

Kamala Harris leads in the most recent 14 polls [View all]

14 polls from various polling organizations have Kamala Harris winning every one of them. They span the past 8 days. The most recent, from Marquette Law School, published today, has Harris up by 6.

In my opinion, Trump cannot catch Harris on his own. The only way he can win is if he and the media destroy her, and I don't think there's anything there, after all these years, that can be that catastrophic.

My one caveat is the quirk in our election system called the Electoral College. It's bitten us in the ass twice, so I am always weary of getting too much over my skis. If our system was the winner of the popular vote becomes President, I could sleep a lot easier. But it's not, so we have a ton of work to do in the states that matter, and that includes Nebraska's and Maine's second districts, which choose their elector separately from the rest of the state. If Harris wins all the states she's currently comfortably ahead in and adds Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, she still needs one of those two district EC votes for 270. If not, it goes to the House by majority vote of each state delegation and it looks like Trump would win 26 to 24 in that case. As I said, the system sucks. We always have to ride our horse with extra weight added.

But, anyway, today's numbers are encouraging

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/national

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One thing I can 100% agree with James Carville about is this: madaboutharry Aug 8 #1
That's good advice! Emile Aug 8 #2
I never liked that saying Pototan Aug 8 #3
It means "don't get complacent." madaboutharry Aug 8 #4
Nobody will get complacent with "10 votes behind" as the standard Pototan Aug 8 #5
It seems like Biden points were like dog's years displacedvermoter Aug 8 #29
it was about this time when Hillary was 10 points ahead... samnsara Aug 8 #8
Try raising money with your candidate 10 points behind Pototan Aug 8 #10
Or as Bob Cesca, one of my favorite political podcasters says: Mad_Machine76 Aug 8 #33
that was fast BlueWaveNeverEnd Aug 8 #6
Trendline is positive, for sure JCMach1 Aug 8 #7
"In my opinion, Trump cannot catch Harris on his own" speak easy Aug 8 #9
Thanks for mentioning Nebraska District 2! Gaytano70 Aug 8 #11
Nebraska's 2nd Pototan Aug 8 #12
Doing all we Kam! Gaytano70 Aug 8 #13
Ya, I hope that Walz makes Pototan Aug 8 #16
I'm still hoping NE-1 sees the light. jayschool2013 Aug 8 #28
If it comes to the House onlyadream Aug 8 #14
That vote is by delegations not raw numbers which slants TheKentuckian Aug 8 #20
No. Each state delgation votes separately Pototan Aug 8 #22
Trump's poll numbers are dropping like flies. Emile Aug 8 #15
Those down ballot races are important if the election goes to the House lees1975 Aug 8 #17
If the election goes to the House waddirum Aug 8 #34
Carmel Delight & Master Sgt Walz outclass Von Shitzinpantz and Vance Dunce by a factor of 250? Brainfodder Aug 8 #18
Democrats need a great convention Johonny Aug 8 #19
You know Trump is in trouble when even Rasmussen only has him 1 point ahead OnlinePoker Aug 8 #21
Just to be clear sarisataka Aug 8 #23
Not me Pototan Aug 8 #24
I agree with that view sarisataka Aug 8 #25
We like obnoxiousdrunk Aug 8 #26
I believed those polls and thought we were headed towards defeat Kaleva Aug 8 #30
Don't assume everyone here trashes polls Zoomie1986 Aug 8 #36
Keep your eyes on the prize. Raftergirl Aug 8 #27
We have had niine straight years of proTrump bs. Let us rejoice in this polling. Stop disallowing time to smile! GreenWave Aug 8 #31
Not today's CNBC poll Polybius Aug 8 #32
Again, it isn't because of her. ANY Democrat would come out on top right now valleyrogue Aug 8 #35
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