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Johonny

(22,222 posts)

10. The democratic insiders seem to be saying

Reply to Tribetime (Original post)

Thu Oct 3, 2024, 04:18 PM

Oct 3

It is a close dog fight so I think it's a close dog fight.

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MistakenLamb

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Who else doesn't trust the polling it doesn't pass the smell test [View all] Tribetime Oct 3 OP

Me, for one. ananda Oct 3 #1

How many of these were true in 2016? WarGamer Oct 3 #2

I understand that but I still think the polling's off Tribetime Oct 3 #3

4.5 weeks... we will see. WarGamer Oct 3 #4

You're right. The polling IS off because it's horse race polling. ancianita Oct 3 #38

You're absolutely correct, horse race polling, brought to us by a for-profit Magoo48 Oct 3 #56

Pollsters have all adjusted their turnout models from pre-2016 to 2020's model WSHazel Oct 3 #16

2020 will never be replicated because it was increased mail-in... it's the "Asterisk Election" WarGamer Oct 3 #23

What do you mean 2020 was full mail-in? PoindexterOglethorpe Oct 3 #29

remember COVID? WarGamer Oct 3 #45

That just tells you what percentage of voters voted by mail in each state. PoindexterOglethorpe Oct 3 #48

the point of my post was... WarGamer Oct 3 #51

Actually, ancianita Oct 3 #60

Simple. WarGamer Oct 3 #76

Are you sure? ancianita Oct 3 #81

yup WarGamer Oct 3 #82

Okay, well ancianita Oct 3 #85

How are you sure you're doing it right and MAGA boards aren't going to throw your vote out. uponit7771 Oct 4 #98

You can only be sure with mail-ins that you're covered by 4 federal laws on mail "misplacement, mishandling, loss, or ancianita Oct 4 #99

Not sure what you mean angrychair Oct 3 #25

The surprise was how many Trump voters turned out WSHazel Oct 3 #31

Don't trust them one bit. And virtually all the media treats them as if they are elections. bullimiami Oct 3 #5

She's got the popular vote in the bag. jimfields33 Oct 3 #6

Seems like corporate parent companies are doing two things... polichick Oct 3 #7

This EXACTLY!!! n/t Cheezoholic Oct 3 #24

And the bastards get a built in excuse to go bonkers. GreenWave Oct 3 #35

I know for a fact (from working in media) that there is a lot more... Think. Again. Oct 3 #8

I always keep my salt shaker handy when reading polls. TheRickles Oct 3 #19

I keep a bag of rock salt handy (winters coming lol) n/t Cheezoholic Oct 3 #26

I agree with you. OLDMDDEM Oct 3 #9

The democratic insiders seem to be saying Johonny Oct 3 #10

It is a dogfight 2016 and 2020 prove that MistakenLamb Oct 4 #97

A couple of interesting quotes about polls canetoad Oct 3 #11

Thank you for that Tribetime Oct 3 #12

The quotes are from *characters* in the author's books RidinWithHarris Oct 4 #92

Michael Dobbs canetoad Oct 4 #93

I'm suggesting that you should take the words of *characters in his stories* as if they are... RidinWithHarris Oct 4 #94

Yeah canetoad Oct 4 #95

The polls have terrible for a long time. -misanthroptimist Oct 3 #13

100% agree. lees1975 Oct 3 #14

I think even the pollsters are second guessing themselves Quiet Em Oct 3 #15

I believe the poll on November 5 Just_Vote_Dem Oct 3 #17

i think with new technology like cellphones blocking capabilities polling just isn't getting enough proper samples yaesu Oct 3 #18

I don't know if the polls are accurate or not. I'm just going to vote, and encourage other people to vote for Martin68 Oct 3 #20

The Comey effect crimycarny Oct 3 #49

I agree that Comey probably threw the election for Trump, but no one can guarantee a significant number of voters Martin68 Oct 3 #83

We'll have to agree to disagree crimycarny Oct 3 #84

Senate polls vs. Harris polls WSHazel Oct 3 #21

me ... polls are putty in whoever's hands.... DoBW Oct 3 #22

This guy ... marble falls Oct 3 #27

Not paying one bit of attention to the polls. Dem2theMax Oct 3 #28

Trump has traditionally overperformed his polls by 2-4%. RedSpartan Oct 3 #30

But democrats have outperformed since Roe was overturned Tribetime Oct 3 #33

This is the key which too many people ignore Wiz Imp Oct 3 #77

It's still front and center in Ohio so I expect other States as well Tribetime Oct 3 #80

Except for DeSantis in 2022, who way overperformed Polybius Oct 3 #86

True Wiz Imp Oct 3 #87

Funny thing is that after the election in 2022, Mike Lindell said DeSantis rigged it Polybius Oct 4 #89

That means it is less likely he will do it again WSHazel Oct 3 #34

Look a little deeper into that. Usually only in red states. He actually underperforms but then, so do his Democratic lees1975 Oct 4 #90

The owners of the media *COUGH* Rupert Murdoch *COUGH* don't want to see a truly united America. Initech Oct 3 #32

Hopefully Rupert loses the court case in Las Vegas and his liberal kids take over. kerry-is-my-prez Oct 3 #39

Most of the polls are screwy but there are a few that you can believe. kerry-is-my-prez Oct 3 #36

The only poll i'm looking for is the Iowa poll just before Election Day Tribetime Oct 3 #37

Depends on who's doing the poll stillcool Oct 3 #40

You underestimate the American people krkaufman Oct 3 #41

I don't trust the polls-- there's a huge gap between reality and what they profess. ailsagirl Oct 3 #42

... KS Toronado Oct 3 #43

The polls have been consistently overweighted... appmanga Oct 3 #44

I am optimistic that it is going to be a landslide. Ferrets are Cool Oct 3 #46

Im with you 7% or more Tribetime Oct 3 #50

Agree. Over 303 electoral votes. lees1975 Oct 4 #91

Well.. it's got me pretty spooked. Taraman Oct 3 #47

I don't give them two cents worth of my attention. They have been abysmally wrong the last 3 election cycles PortTack Oct 3 #52

I was just thinking that the other day, that the crowds, the happiness, the feeling good aura, just everything is SWBTATTReg Oct 3 #53

tsf has lost a lot of repug women, men and louis-t Oct 3 #54

Harris-Walz - +15MM OAITW r.2.0 Oct 3 #55

I like the way you think...I'm thinking 11 Tribetime Oct 3 #61

I don't... Demsrule86 Oct 3 #57

I don't... Demsrule86 Oct 3 #58

I agree and also all of the Dem4life1970 Oct 3 #59

We have to win big to win the electoral votes. We have to sweep most of the swing states IronLionZion Oct 3 #62

I don't know that I distrust the polls in aggregate. markodochartaigh Oct 3 #63

Never trusted polling richdj25 Oct 3 #64

A better way to tell how things are going? catchnrelease Oct 3 #65

I saw him on YouTube he's exceptional Tribetime Oct 3 #69

Oh thanks catchnrelease Oct 3 #74

Makes perfect sense Wiz Imp Oct 3 #78

I Take A Big Grain Of Salt With All Of Them WiVoter Oct 3 #66

We need to behave as though they ARE correct Betty Boom Oct 3 #67

me too... myohmy2 Oct 3 #68

Yes Harris on Sunday in Las Vegas had a gleam in her eye Tribetime Oct 3 #70

I think we're seeing another Dewey Defeats Truman situation TlalocW Oct 3 #71

I agree, bad polling data, Trump lost in 2020 and he is much worse in 2024, the polls scream fake. nt ShazamIam Oct 3 #72

Polls are def wrong askyagerz Oct 3 #73

Registrations have also been way up peggysue2 Oct 3 #75

They're horse shit. IrishAfricanAmerican Oct 3 #79

Heart says yes,....brain no FHRRK Oct 3 #88

No this election is going to be close and either one of them can win. MistakenLamb Oct 4 #96