General Discussion

myohmy2

(3,572 posts)

68. me too...

Thu Oct 3, 2024, 06:57 PM

Oct 3

...I view public polls as tools of propaganda...

...I'm sure there are valid private pools the candidates use, so I'd rather watch the candidate's demeanor...

...desperation is hard to mask...

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

1 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Tribetime

99 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Who else doesn't trust the polling it doesn't pass the smell test [View all] Tribetime Oct 3 OP

Me, for one. ananda Oct 3 #1

How many of these were true in 2016? WarGamer Oct 3 #2

I understand that but I still think the polling's off Tribetime Oct 3 #3

4.5 weeks... we will see. WarGamer Oct 3 #4

You're right. The polling IS off because it's horse race polling. ancianita Oct 3 #38

You're absolutely correct, horse race polling, brought to us by a for-profit Magoo48 Oct 3 #56

Pollsters have all adjusted their turnout models from pre-2016 to 2020's model WSHazel Oct 3 #16

2020 will never be replicated because it was increased mail-in... it's the "Asterisk Election" WarGamer Oct 3 #23

What do you mean 2020 was full mail-in? PoindexterOglethorpe Oct 3 #29

remember COVID? WarGamer Oct 3 #45

That just tells you what percentage of voters voted by mail in each state. PoindexterOglethorpe Oct 3 #48

the point of my post was... WarGamer Oct 3 #51

Actually, ancianita Oct 3 #60

Simple. WarGamer Oct 3 #76

Are you sure? ancianita Oct 3 #81

yup WarGamer Oct 3 #82

Okay, well ancianita Oct 3 #85

How are you sure you're doing it right and MAGA boards aren't going to throw your vote out. uponit7771 Oct 4 #98

You can only be sure with mail-ins that you're covered by 4 federal laws on mail "misplacement, mishandling, loss, or ancianita Oct 4 #99

Not sure what you mean angrychair Oct 3 #25

The surprise was how many Trump voters turned out WSHazel Oct 3 #31

Don't trust them one bit. And virtually all the media treats them as if they are elections. bullimiami Oct 3 #5

She's got the popular vote in the bag. jimfields33 Oct 3 #6

Seems like corporate parent companies are doing two things... polichick Oct 3 #7

This EXACTLY!!! n/t Cheezoholic Oct 3 #24

And the bastards get a built in excuse to go bonkers. GreenWave Oct 3 #35

I know for a fact (from working in media) that there is a lot more... Think. Again. Oct 3 #8

I always keep my salt shaker handy when reading polls. TheRickles Oct 3 #19

I keep a bag of rock salt handy (winters coming lol) n/t Cheezoholic Oct 3 #26

I agree with you. OLDMDDEM Oct 3 #9

The democratic insiders seem to be saying Johonny Oct 3 #10

It is a dogfight 2016 and 2020 prove that MistakenLamb Oct 4 #97

A couple of interesting quotes about polls canetoad Oct 3 #11

Thank you for that Tribetime Oct 3 #12

The quotes are from *characters* in the author's books RidinWithHarris Oct 4 #92

Michael Dobbs canetoad Oct 4 #93

I'm suggesting that you should take the words of *characters in his stories* as if they are... RidinWithHarris Oct 4 #94

Yeah canetoad Oct 4 #95

The polls have terrible for a long time. -misanthroptimist Oct 3 #13

100% agree. lees1975 Oct 3 #14

I think even the pollsters are second guessing themselves Quiet Em Oct 3 #15

I believe the poll on November 5 Just_Vote_Dem Oct 3 #17

i think with new technology like cellphones blocking capabilities polling just isn't getting enough proper samples yaesu Oct 3 #18

I don't know if the polls are accurate or not. I'm just going to vote, and encourage other people to vote for Martin68 Oct 3 #20

The Comey effect crimycarny Oct 3 #49

I agree that Comey probably threw the election for Trump, but no one can guarantee a significant number of voters Martin68 Oct 3 #83

We'll have to agree to disagree crimycarny Oct 3 #84

Senate polls vs. Harris polls WSHazel Oct 3 #21

me ... polls are putty in whoever's hands.... DoBW Oct 3 #22

This guy ... marble falls Oct 3 #27

Not paying one bit of attention to the polls. Dem2theMax Oct 3 #28

Trump has traditionally overperformed his polls by 2-4%. RedSpartan Oct 3 #30

But democrats have outperformed since Roe was overturned Tribetime Oct 3 #33

This is the key which too many people ignore Wiz Imp Oct 3 #77

It's still front and center in Ohio so I expect other States as well Tribetime Oct 3 #80

Except for DeSantis in 2022, who way overperformed Polybius Oct 3 #86

True Wiz Imp Oct 3 #87

Funny thing is that after the election in 2022, Mike Lindell said DeSantis rigged it Polybius Oct 4 #89

That means it is less likely he will do it again WSHazel Oct 3 #34

Look a little deeper into that. Usually only in red states. He actually underperforms but then, so do his Democratic lees1975 Oct 4 #90

The owners of the media *COUGH* Rupert Murdoch *COUGH* don't want to see a truly united America. Initech Oct 3 #32

Hopefully Rupert loses the court case in Las Vegas and his liberal kids take over. kerry-is-my-prez Oct 3 #39

Most of the polls are screwy but there are a few that you can believe. kerry-is-my-prez Oct 3 #36

The only poll i'm looking for is the Iowa poll just before Election Day Tribetime Oct 3 #37

Depends on who's doing the poll stillcool Oct 3 #40

You underestimate the American people krkaufman Oct 3 #41

I don't trust the polls-- there's a huge gap between reality and what they profess. ailsagirl Oct 3 #42

... KS Toronado Oct 3 #43

The polls have been consistently overweighted... appmanga Oct 3 #44

I am optimistic that it is going to be a landslide. Ferrets are Cool Oct 3 #46

Im with you 7% or more Tribetime Oct 3 #50

Agree. Over 303 electoral votes. lees1975 Oct 4 #91

Well.. it's got me pretty spooked. Taraman Oct 3 #47

I don't give them two cents worth of my attention. They have been abysmally wrong the last 3 election cycles PortTack Oct 3 #52

I was just thinking that the other day, that the crowds, the happiness, the feeling good aura, just everything is SWBTATTReg Oct 3 #53

tsf has lost a lot of repug women, men and louis-t Oct 3 #54

Harris-Walz - +15MM OAITW r.2.0 Oct 3 #55

I like the way you think...I'm thinking 11 Tribetime Oct 3 #61

I don't... Demsrule86 Oct 3 #57

I don't... Demsrule86 Oct 3 #58

I agree and also all of the Dem4life1970 Oct 3 #59

We have to win big to win the electoral votes. We have to sweep most of the swing states IronLionZion Oct 3 #62

I don't know that I distrust the polls in aggregate. markodochartaigh Oct 3 #63

Never trusted polling richdj25 Oct 3 #64

A better way to tell how things are going? catchnrelease Oct 3 #65

I saw him on YouTube he's exceptional Tribetime Oct 3 #69

Oh thanks catchnrelease Oct 3 #74

Makes perfect sense Wiz Imp Oct 3 #78

I Take A Big Grain Of Salt With All Of Them WiVoter Oct 3 #66

We need to behave as though they ARE correct Betty Boom Oct 3 #67

me too... myohmy2 Oct 3 #68

Yes Harris on Sunday in Las Vegas had a gleam in her eye Tribetime Oct 3 #70

I think we're seeing another Dewey Defeats Truman situation TlalocW Oct 3 #71

I agree, bad polling data, Trump lost in 2020 and he is much worse in 2024, the polls scream fake. nt ShazamIam Oct 3 #72

Polls are def wrong askyagerz Oct 3 #73

Registrations have also been way up peggysue2 Oct 3 #75

They're horse shit. IrishAfricanAmerican Oct 3 #79

Heart says yes,....brain no FHRRK Oct 3 #88

No this election is going to be close and either one of them can win. MistakenLamb Oct 4 #96