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Self Esteem

(1,759 posts)
15. Yes. I think people need to prepare themselves for a very long election night.
Fri Oct 4, 2024, 07:15 PM
Oct 4

I get wanting to be confident and optimistic about November but the facts remain: this is likely to be a very close election and that means it could take days before every state is called.

I too would love for a 2012-like night - and who knows? Maybe we get it (tho, Obama was polling far better in his must-win states than Harris is). But it's just hope at this point to expect an easy night. And I fear those who have convinced themselves this will be a cakewalk - like some saying Harris will win Pennsylvania by 15 or so points (absolutely not happening) are going to be the ones most negatively impacted by a close election.

I am absolutely prepared for a long outcome, especially after 2020. If she somehow is declared the winner early, hell yeah! But I'm not expecting it.

Recommendations

2 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

I've been posting about this too senseandsensibility Oct 4 #1
Yup, I've seen your posts Chasing Dreams Oct 4 #2
Thanks for doing this! senseandsensibility Oct 4 #3
If you remember how we have been overperforming polls wryter2000 Oct 5 #40
I also had a fight on my hands wryter2000 Oct 5 #39
Further essential reading regarding the current state of polling: Fiendish Thingy Oct 4 #4
I read the article a week ago. Chasing Dreams Oct 4 #8
Get rid of everything you don't like, and the results improve! Prairie Gates Oct 4 #5
Nope. Read the article I linked and it will make more sense. Chasing Dreams Oct 4 #7
But what is the definition of "a GOP affiliation"? TheRickles Oct 4 #23
Post Dobbs... SomedayKindaLove Oct 4 #6
WI + MI + PA 270 BWdem4life Oct 4 #9
Hear! Hear! littlemissmartypants Oct 4 #16
Even getting rid of the Republican-leaning polls indicates how close of a race this is. Self Esteem Oct 4 #10
Close enough to lose via suppression, theft, and litigation Blaukraut Oct 4 #14
I hear you, but we have an arsenal too Chasing Dreams Oct 4 #17
I'm not toast. littlemissmartypants Oct 4 #18
No, we're not. People were saying that in 2018, 2020, and 2022. Elessar Zappa Oct 5 #37
Imagine if such polls were never included to push the undecided... GreenWave Oct 4 #28
Election night is going to be scary as hell liberal N proud Oct 4 #11
If you live in a cannabis legal state Chasing Dreams Oct 4 #13
Yes. I think people need to prepare themselves for a very long election night. Self Esteem Oct 4 #15
Only poll that matters is the one taken on 11/5/24 n/t aggiesal Oct 4 #12
That's right, aggiesal. 💯😸❤️ littlemissmartypants Oct 4 #21
With all the vote suppression techniques being employed slightlv Oct 4 #19
She's spectacular. ❤️ littlemissmartypants Oct 4 #22
Wow! Thank You! lucca18 Oct 4 #20
I don't agree with some of the polls you have listed. kerry-is-my-prez Oct 4 #24
They aren't mine - they are from research led by renowned Democratic Strategist Simon Rosenberg Chasing Dreams Oct 5 #35
I hope this is true AdamGG Oct 4 #25
The problem is... ONE State of the Blue Wall and Trump probably wins. WarGamer Oct 4 #26
If Robinson is trailing by same double digit displacedvermoter Oct 5 #31
4 weeks... we'll know soon. WarGamer Oct 5 #32
Why wouldn't the pro-Trump pollsters cheat? Pro-Trump media and pro-Trump lawmakers cheat all the time. Doodley Oct 4 #27
Don't think in terms of cheating, think in terms of data model bias Amishman Oct 5 #34
Accuracy is measured by pollsters' LAST survey each cycle. Chasing Dreams Oct 5 #36
I recommend this week's Science Friday on NPR with regards to polling. GoCubsGo Oct 4 #29
Thing is a supposedly knowledgeable person like displacedvermoter Oct 5 #30
My thoughts all along. Emile Oct 5 #33
Napolitan is a news network that uses RMG to do its field work. kerry-is-my-prez Oct 5 #38
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