A closer look at the Iowa poll

[Pototan]

Look, I'm as giddy as the next Democrat at the possibility of Kamala Harris carrying Iowa, but this poll signifies more than that.

This poll is an A++ gold standard poll. But, of course, it's not infallible. This pollster's worst polling miss in an Iowa statewide race was 5 points in a Governor's race. Her poll that year was D+2, the final result was R+3. Every other poll has been either right on, or off just a point or 2 either way. But her Presidential polls of Iowa have been used by pundits as a harbinger of the final result nationally, especially the mid-west and more specifically, the "Blue Wall" states.

In the last 2 cycles she had Iowa Trump +7. In each case, Trump outperformed the conventional polls significantly in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Once narrowly winning and once narrowly losing. and that 7-point margin was nearly exactly correct in Iowa.

So, let's say this pollster misses in Iowa by the largest amount in any statewide poll by her in 15 years, that R+5 in the Governor's race. That puts this poll at Trump +2. That would give Trump Iowa but would signify a comfortable win in all 3 mid-west battleground states for Kamala Harris. More importantly, inside the numbers, she has a +28-point Harris lead among Independent women in the nearly all white Iowa electorate.

I find a great deal of positive energy in this Iowa poll.