General Discussion

WSHazel

(876 posts)

8. Demand destruction

Reply to LymphocyteLover (Original post)

Thu Jun 4, 2026, 08:38 AM

Yesterday

There is significant demand destruction that kicks in at $100/barrel, and it will go up as the price of oil goes up. A lot of that demand destruction will never return. This is why the Gulf States are working so hard to end run the Strait, and why the UAE dropped out of OPEC. The other side of this crisis is going to be over-supply.

I believe one of the key reasons that Trump started this conflict was to increase energy prices which would help U.S. producers and improve the trade deficit since the U.S. is a net exporter. It is a phenomenally stupid strategy, because the back end of this is lower oil prices than pre-conflict, which will crush U.S. producers who have some of the highest production costs in the world, but Trump doesn't care about the long or even intermediate term.

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FakeNoose Cheezoholic Multichromatic brakester GrapesOfWrath

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Highlight:

If the Strait of Hormuz doesn't open soon, as seems likely, there will be a massive economic crash [View all] LymphocyteLover Yesterday OP

The shit is on the wing orangecrush Yesterday #1

The storage cushion is fudgy. bucolic_frolic Yesterday #2

President Bone Spurs had a plan to get out of Vietnam. Emile Yesterday #3

Daddy's not buying his way out of this one. dem4decades Yesterday #4

From another perspective cachukis Yesterday #5

there's definitely been some adaptation... but still a lot has been kept afloat by the reserves that are likely to run LymphocyteLover Yesterday #27

No question. One of my worries is the takeover of cachukis Yesterday #31

Absolutely. I totally agree on all those points. The stock market is particularly a mess IMO LymphocyteLover Yesterday #32

Have invested mostly in real estate over the last cachukis Yesterday #34

Why would " Diesel goes first"??? Melon Yesterday #6

800,000 to 1.2 million SamuelTheThird Yesterday #11

It's one country. Multiply across all oil producing Melon 22 hrs ago #41

Yes, but the key is how long the strait stays closed and how quickly the reserves run out LymphocyteLover Yesterday #28

Diesel is often made from mideastern crude while gasoline is made from US crude JT45242 Yesterday #30

Not In The US, Though ProfessorGAC 7 hrs ago #45

Completely wrong. GreatGazoo Yesterday #7

lol@your link SamuelTheThird Yesterday #10

You ignored all the numbers to nitpick about semantics GreatGazoo Yesterday #15

Are America's strategic reserves at a 40 year low right before the summer season? SamuelTheThird Yesterday #19

Traders in Singapore, Beijing and Mumbai aren't duped by whatever Trump says GreatGazoo Yesterday #36

This message was self-deleted by its author LymphocyteLover Yesterday #29

Futures Are Not Delivery modrepub 23 hrs ago #39

"futures price contracts probably isn't a good predictor of actual future prices" -- meaning spot prices, yes GreatGazoo 19 hrs ago #42

Future Prices Are Not Necessarily modrepub 9 hrs ago #43

No. For anyone holding a March contract at $63 their price in March was $63 GreatGazoo 8 hrs ago #44

Appreciate your insight as I'm an admitted economic idiot. I can see where Exxon would be trying to "warn" Cheezoholic Yesterday #21

Futures lock in a price right now GreatGazoo Yesterday #22

Admittedly, Im no expert or even amateur...but SamuelTheThird Yesterday #35

Since oil is sold as futures there is more profit when buyers panic about the future GreatGazoo Yesterday #37

All hinging on a deal that isn't going to happen SamuelTheThird Yesterday #38

Last week Exxon Mobil warned that oil inventories will fall to record low levels in coming weeks LymphocyteLover Yesterday #33

Demand destruction WSHazel Yesterday #8

"one of the key reasons that Trump started this conflict was to increase energy prices"-- agree LymphocyteLover Yesterday #25

And it's all part of the plan... 2naSalit Yesterday #9

Excellent summation. Kid Berwyn Yesterday #12

I don't think the Strait of Hormuz never reopening is going to happen, but it will not reopen without a major shock ToxMarz Yesterday #13

Agree. Thanks for the link. LymphocyteLover Yesterday #24

Kick dalton99a Yesterday #14

MAGA does the full collapse kairos12 Yesterday #16

First the bastids want to grift off it, if they can. GreenWave Yesterday #17

But I thouight it would be open in two weeks. AverageOldGuy Yesterday #18

That's the point. Blue Full Moon Yesterday #20

Unbelievably awful LymphocyteLover Yesterday #23

It's happening now as we speak. marble falls Yesterday #26

Remember that the UAE left OPEC a few weeks ago WSHazel 22 hrs ago #40