General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Stop it, stop saying Social Security needs reform, you are a Democrat, right? [View all]HiPointDem
(20,729 posts)most recent official forecast, and it's the one used in the media.
That forecast changes every year though, depending on economic conditions and the assumptions they plug into the model. That's why you hear different numbers.
But basically, 20 years until the Trust Fund is used up, officially. However, SS would still be able to pay out 75-80% of benefits on SS tax revenues alone after that, without any "fix" at all. (And because of scheduled benefit increases, the value represented by that 75-80% would actually be above the current 75-80% value).
Date for exhaustion of the TF isn't set in stone though; lots of things can alter the situation. More jobs and higher wages, for one.
And remember: it's a forecast, not a certainty. In fact, the Trustees make 3 forecasts every year, and the low-cost forecast has been most accurate in the short-term. And it shows the TF not being exhausted at all.
So I guess my point is, when people tell you X will *definitely* happen, they're lying. And quite possibly they're trying to stampede you into supporting something that will be bad for you.