Obama's Back.

[1StrongBlackMan]

98. Well ...

If you want to cite facts (i.e., polling data), it might be helpful if the polls cited polled on what is at issue. {Note: it's generally not a good idea to cite to a poll, without actually reading the poll questions ... relying on the editorial analysis is lazy and often misleading} The question is not the broad question of "Do you, or do you not, support military intervention in Syria ... because that is NOT what President Obama is proposing. I know DU, generally does not do nuance (especially when it cuts against what they want to argue); but having read much of your writing here, you had shown different ... you have the ability to do so.

Following is my analysis, of a widely media cited poll (it even shows up in your articles) doesn’t seem to represent what many on DU, and throughout the media, are indicating … that Americans do not support military intervention in Syria … and the broader proposition, that any military intervention will negatively impact Democrats … the former is incomplete and the latter is un-addressed and unanswered.


http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i//MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/13336_NBC_Syria_Poll.pdf

“Q5 Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing in handling the situation in Syria?

Approve .................. 35

Disapprove .............. 44

Not sure ................ 21”

Although a (+9) plurality disapprove of President Obama’s handling of the situation in Syria, this … like with most binary, forced choice polling questions are … is really a meaningless number, in that my disapproval on the subject could as easily be because I think he is doing too much, or too little … acting to aggressively, or not aggressively enough. There really is nothing substantive that can be drawn from this question, except that people are not happy … But the “why”, is the unanswered question.

But when the poll drills down a bit, a different picture emerges:

“Q6 Syrian civilians have been killed by their government in response to protests and civil unrest. The U.S is

taking diplomatic and economic measures to try to stop the Syrian government from taking military action

against its citizens. Which ONE statement best describes what you think (ROTATE FIRST THREE

STATEMENTS)

The U.S. should take military action to help stop the killing of civilians.

The U.S. should provide weapons to the forces inside Syria opposing the government.

The U.S. should provide only humanitarian assistance to the civilians injured or forced from their homes.

…OR…

The U.S. should take none of these additional actions.


Take military action to help stop the killing ............... 26

Provide arms to the opposition ................................. 6

Provide only humanitarian assistance ...................... 40

Take no additional action .......................................... 23

Take some mix of actions (VOL) .............................. 1

Take some other action (VOL) ................................. 1

Not sure .................................................................... 3”

This question reveals that a plurality of those surveyed, prefer the course of taking military action over taking no military action (by +3). But when the question is refined further (Q8), to query taking military action based on the use of chemical weapons, the response somewhat blurs, with a +8, in favor of no military action over taking military action. This seems to be where most “analysis” ends.

But when you get to Q8X, a more clear message presents:

“Q8X Now, more specifically, if U.S. military action in Syria were limited to air strikes using cruise missiles

launched from U.S. naval ships that were meant to destroy military units and infrastructure that have been

used to carry out chemical attacks would you support or oppose this U.S. military action in Syria?*

Support ................................................................. 50

Oppose ................................................................. 44

Not sure .............................................................. 6”


{Note the specificity of the question ... it directly queries on President Obama's proposal} Here the numbers flip, with the plurality supporting limited military.

So the larger numeric picture reveals that those polled are indicating that they support President Obama’s course of limited military action; rather than, what many are suggesting … that Americans oppose the President’s course. And, it should be noted that Q13 reveals much more support for President Obama’s course, that the limited military action be to “send a ‘stop using chemical weapon’ message” rather than, any broader goal.

However, though unasked (so I’m merely guessing here, based on the responses provided in Q10 and Q11), I suspect what this poll actually reflects is that while a majority of those polls support the President’s limited military action course, they also fear a wider US involvement.

Now, I know … polls are meaningless, so this poll, as all polling, should just be ignored … (except for those polls that support what I have been saying … or at most, we should just stop reading the polls, after the head-line.) \