Who will choose our 2016 nominee?

[Laelth]

Last edited Wed May 7, 2014, 12:21 PM - Edit history (1)

This is not a poll. It's supposed to be educational, and it's a response to a naive but well-intentioned DU thread that appeared recently and sank like a stone. That thread questioned whether or not Elizabeth Warren's populism resonated sufficiently within the Democratic Party to allow Warren to win the nomination were she to seek it.

There are many of us who still believe (or cynically advance the proposition) that our nominees are selected based upon their stands on "issues" that affect the electorate. The idea is that Democrats will vote for the primary candidate that most closely reflects and advances his or her own political ideology, and that the person who is closest to "mainstream" thought within the Democratic Party should win. This notion is now absurd (and it may have always been absurd).

Most people who are paying attention realize that money drives politics in the United States, and this rule applies to the Democratic Party's nominating process as well. The best indicator of a candidate's chances to win a primary election is that candidate's ability to fundraise. Policy and ideology (while not entirely irrelevant) are but minor concerns in the grand scheme of our national politics. As such, when we consider who our likely nominees will be for the 2016 Presidential election, our first concern should be the fundraising capacity of the candidates in question.

Here's the list of the top three fundraisers in the Democratic Party, in order:

1) Barack Obama
2) Hillary Clinton
3) Elizabeth Warren

Noam Scheiber, in a seminal essay, explains that there are two, separate, and competing money-generating machines working in the Democratic Party. One is controlled by President Barack Obama, and it is dominant. Obama inherited this machine from John Kerry who, by endorsing Obama and throwing his machine behind him, allowed Obama to secure the 2008 nomination. Obama, for his part, improved Kerry's machine and created the greatest and most powerful donation-generating mechanism in the history of American politics, but it remains true that the Clinton machine (inherited by Hillary from her husband) remains potent and can not be dismissed. Elizabeth Warren, for her part, is building her own, separate fundraising machine, and she has been remarkably successful in doing so, but her fundraising capacity lags behind that of our President and Hillary Clinton significantly.

Given this dynamic (considering the reality of fundraising capabilities in the Democratic Party today) it seems clear to me that Barack Obama will choose our next Presidential nominee. Someone will inherit his fundraising machine, and that person is likely to win the nomination. To whom he will give his machine is the only relevant question.

I hope, of course, that he decides to throw his weight behind Elizabeth Warren. Those who take Warren at her word that she's not running for President are rather naive, I suspect. At the very least, Warren is keeping her options open (as she should--being the savvy politician that she is), but the release of her latest book, A Fighting Chance, is the best indicator I have yet seen that she intends to pursue the nomination. A book like that (laying out a general political philosophy and advancing specific policy proposals to address the nation's ills) is a prerequisite for a Presidential run these days. As an aside, liberals who want to support Warren and who would like to see her run should buy the book. She needs the money, and she needs to be able to point to significant sales of the book in order to convince the "money people" who run the Democratic Party to back her.

That said, the main "money person" in the Democratic Party, at the moment, is President Barack Obama. His machine is our strongest, and the person to whom he gives this machine is likely to win the nomination. I hope he chooses wisely, but I don't believe for a second that our nominating process has anything to do with "issues" or "ideas." If only that were true. Instead, money runs the process. The best indicator of our likely nominee in 2016 is that candidate's ability to marshall and unite the big donors (with some help from millions of small donors) who drive American politics today. Ultimately, it's up to President Obama. Whomever Barack Obama chooses to inherit his colossal (and unprecedented) machine is likely to win.

-Laelth