"Obama and the End of Greatness"

[Algernon Moncrieff]

9. The minute a President actually seems to be bringing change, Americans slam the brakes

This was true in this administration, and it was true during the Clinton administration. Both young, Democratic Presidents' both very well spoken; and both of whom defeated old Republicans who seemed to be out of ideas. Both brought us out of recession. Yet, in both cases, the first midterm in their administration brought about a seismic shift in th House of Representatives that -- at least in Clinton's case -- was never overcome. Contrast that with George W. Bush -- the country rallied around him after 9-11, and he got to enjoy having both houses of Congress be solidly Republican until the Iraq war was in total meltdown in 2006. Mind that Bush got into the WH with fewer popular votes than Al Gore, and barely beat John Kerry in 2004.

Part of the problem is what voters want is a moving target. 2008 is a perfect case in point: in 2008, the public wanted out of Iraq yesterday, and they wanted somebody to stop the economic free fall. Here came Barack Obama -- a refreshing, cool, young (in politician years) guy with a beautiful wife and family running on "Hope & Change". He got elected, had both houses of Congress, and set about ....making changes. The problem is that Americans typically don't really want change; they want comfort. So when Obama began changing healthcare, he caught Hell for not focusing on jobs. When he started pulling out of Iraq, some complained he wasn't moving out fast enough, while others were loathe to give up the gains their sons had died or been maimed for in Iraq. 2010 comes along; out goes Pelosi; in comes Boehner; and change grinds to a halt. As in '94, the Republicans did a great job of making people fear change, and Democrats did a poor job of defending their hard-won gains.

While we could, and should want and expect more, the likelihood is that Congress will be no less obstructionist, and after November 4th, the 2016 Presidential elections will begin in earnest. The Republicans will continue to blame the President for everything and hold hearings abut non-issues, and the President will begin thinking about where he'll be building his library and what he and Michelle will be doing in "retirement." It'll become about legacy. Meantime, the cabinet will likely be run by under-secretaries, as Cabinet heads take their leave to go write their books, and the Senate refuses to confirm any replacements.

At this point, I simply pray we aren't sending troops back to Iraq in 2016.

By the way, by 2018, the Republicans will talk about Barack Obama like he's some kind of long, lost buddy -- the same way they seem to talk about Bill Clinton (who, you might remember, they tried to impeach).