Despite Advice to the Contrary, I Will Vote

[MineralMan]

67. There is no youth vote as a major bloc.

What there is, though, is a large pool of younger people who pretty much won't vote at all. Then, there's a pool of young Republican voters who do vote, a pool of Democratic voters that go and vote for Democrats, just like most other Democrats do. I know a bunch of great young people who are very active in Democratic politics in Minnesota. They're hard-working people who make a difference. They vote in every election and help with GOTV efforts. Some are just now taking leadership positions in the local organization, too. People like me are encouraging them to do just that, because the local Democratic organization is tired and ready to stop doing all of the work that is required.

There is another group of younger voters who might just go and vote if they really, really like a candidate, but only if that's the case. A bunch of them showed up at the polls in 2008 to vote for President Obama, but were nowhere to be seen in 2010 and 2014. They did show up in Minnesota in 2012, because there was anti-marriage equality amendment on the ballot, and it made a big difference in the outcome in 2012.

That group, though, is unreliable as voters. You can't count on them to show up at the polling place. I don't expect them to show up in 2016, either, at least in Minnesota, and at least in my districts. We have progressive state legislators and a wonderful house member in my area, and their votes aren't needed to re-elect those people. Unless there's someone cool on the ticket, they'll stay away from the polls, because it's too much fucking hassle for them to bother.

To that extent, then, their participation is candidate oriented. Hillary Clinton isn't going to get them to the polls, and I don't see anyone else lining up for the Democratic primaries. We'll manage to keep our progressive legislators in office where I am, and whoever the Democratic presidential candidate is will get a 60% majority in the districts I vote in. The rest of the voters - the ones who reliably show up - will vote as they always do, for Democrats. They are the true base of this party.

I know what would get that off and on group of voters to the polls in 2016. If Russell Brand could run for President, they'd be there in huge numbers. But, he's not eligible. Elizabeth Warren might get some of them out, but she's not running. Nobody else who has been mentioned will do it, either. Bernie Sanders? I don't think he'll be on the primary ballot here. If he does run, he'll be out of contention by Super Tuesday and won't be in our late primary or will clearly not be a real player by that time.

So, I don't expect the sometimes-voters to show up in 2016. They're not reliable. They are not the Democratic base. The Democratic base shows up and votes for Democrats. That's just how it is. Ask anyone who is involved in Democratic politics at the local level.