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In reply to the discussion: Two words for those who're flinging shade at Houston municipal officials: Hurricane Rita [View all]AtheistCrusader
(33,982 posts)64. I read that. Some problems with it.
Thursday morning into Friday afternoon, it transitioned from a tropical storm with winds of 45 miles per hour to a Category 3 major hurricane with winds of 125 miles per hour in only 36 hours.
Rapid intensification isn't necessarily rare, but it is very hard to forecast. When all the conditions come together just right, a storm can really "blow up" and intensify very quickly.
Rapid intensification isn't necessarily rare, but it is very hard to forecast. When all the conditions come together just right, a storm can really "blow up" and intensify very quickly.
This establishes no climate change link. The link between rising surface temperatures, acceleration and total wind speeds is not entirely understood. A large part of why it is hard to forecast. You can't just scale up what we knew 40 years ago by X% to account for a factor like surface temps. It's more complex than that.
Harvey was downgraded to a tropical storm over the weekend and expected to make a third landfall.
It is rare for a storm to move inland and then back out again over the same body of water it came from. Excessive rainfall has caused flooding more devastating than the impact of Harvey's initial landfall itself.
Inland flooding is often one of the worst impacts for storms making landfall. With the stalling of the storm over land, the flood threat has become Harvey's lasting impression.
CNN meteorologist Dave Hennen labeled Harvey a "one-in-1,000-years type of event."
It is rare for a storm to move inland and then back out again over the same body of water it came from. Excessive rainfall has caused flooding more devastating than the impact of Harvey's initial landfall itself.
Inland flooding is often one of the worst impacts for storms making landfall. With the stalling of the storm over land, the flood threat has become Harvey's lasting impression.
CNN meteorologist Dave Hennen labeled Harvey a "one-in-1,000-years type of event."
These are WEATHER systems. There are three high-pressure weather systems pinning Harvey over that region. The ground flooding is almost entirely due to irresponsible human development, and they are going to pay in spades for it. There's a hell of a lot less of a link between global temperatures and those weather systems, than there are for simple surface temp boosting of a storm, and even that's a murky link.
Yes, climate change is likely a factor for Harvey, but it's not the driving or central issue. It's a mistake to focus on it in this context. It's no better than when the far right goes 'herp derp it's snowing in New Jersey in May!' because again, the relationship between climate and weather is more complex than that. (And because climate chance CAN introduce cold weather in summer too, again, super complex to model.)
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/8/28/16213268/harvey-climate-change
If I had to pick a single thing that could have made this whole event less tragic, building codes. Runoff, impermeable surface development. Simple, raw, human greed. That's where we dropped it. This was a big hurricane, but we own most of the devastation.
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Two words for those who're flinging shade at Houston municipal officials: Hurricane Rita [View all]
TygrBright
Aug 2017
OP
IMO their state and local governments are doing an outstanding job of keeping deaths to a minimum.
appleannie1943
Aug 2017
#7
So far, 9 trillion gallons of water. It's the Kobayashi Maru of disaster scenarios.
Turn CO Blue
Aug 2017
#9
One journo said: "Harvey's trying to pick up the whole damn' Gulf and dump it on the Big Bend." n/t
TygrBright
Aug 2017
#10
Exactly. It was a no-win scenario even two days beforehand - for all the reasons you state
Turn CO Blue
Aug 2017
#19
Most of the people who stay in their homes have a lot of pets or can't afford a hotel. I used to
kerry-is-my-prez
Aug 2017
#13
Those people should have watched the Mayor's press conference just a few minutes ago...
George II
Aug 2017
#16
It is possible that the mayor saved more lives by not issuing a mandatory evacuation.
SweetieD
Aug 2017
#17
and let's say theoretically...that an evacuation was called a WEEK in advance...
steve2470
Aug 2017
#24
Unfortunately, some blaming is already happening. Thanks for your well wishes, syringis!
pnwmom
Aug 2017
#37
I evacuated from the Beaumont area during Rita. Our area has about 300,000 residents
Dustlawyer
Aug 2017
#29
Exactly. Houston knows what it's doing. Evacuations are dangerous in & of themselves.
Honeycombe8
Aug 2017
#42
I've been through manditory evacuation drills like that. And through manditory evacuations.
haele
Aug 2017
#67
Republicans Global warming & Climate change is real. 30-40 inches of rain in 3 days is HERE to STAY.
Sunlei
Aug 2017
#48
there's also US290 going towards Aus but that's been hit with closures and ongoing construction work
onetexan
Aug 2017
#50
This hurricane is not out of line in frequency or power with regular hurricane patterns.
AtheistCrusader
Aug 2017
#52
You can't credibly describe this as 1000 year flooding. 1000 years ago the houston impermeable surfa
AtheistCrusader
Aug 2017
#62
True, for the long game, it's critical to keep the climate perspective.
AtheistCrusader
Aug 2017
#71
Same thing happened in Ga in '94; that flood was "only" a tropical storm. it didnt move.
7962
Aug 2017
#77
See this breakdown of how climate change factors affect intensity and behavior of storms...
TygrBright
Aug 2017
#61
Anyone who has ever lived in Houston knows that the city can be evacuated
McCamy Taylor
Aug 2017
#56
Harvey went from a tropical depression to a Cat 3 hurricane in 48 hours
TexasBushwhacker
Aug 2017
#60
Since Houston can never be evacuated, but it is the most vulnerable city to climate change
Not Ruth
Aug 2017
#76
the teevee gnewz must 2nd guess at all times. 30 vs 100, i'd say the mayor got it right, but as a di
pansypoo53219
Aug 2017
#78