Latest Breaking News
In reply to the discussion: Democratic Donor Contacts Biden Allies About Possible Run [View all]HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)A majority of the total delegates is needed, but two candidates can enter the convention somewhat tied in pledged delegates, and either needing a majority of U pledged superdelegates. Although there are fewer superdelegates than a few decades ago, there are still enough to boost a trailing establishment candidate over a leading outlaw candidate. Risky move, but they could do it.
A somewhat similar situation occurred in 1968. After several early primary losses, LBJ withdrew from the race in March, and VP Hubert Humphrey entered as the 'Establishment' candidate. He was too late to make the filing deadlines for the primary states, but the party machine got him in the caucus states (there were more of them then), and rigged the caucuses to favor him. At the time of RFKs death, the pledged delegate counts were HH-561.5 (all from the rigged caucuses), RFK-393.5, and Eugene McCarthy-258. By the time of the Convention, 80% of the primary voters had gone to the two anti-war candidates, RFK and EM. RFKs delegates were free to shift to EM after the first ballot, but HH had almost as many delegates from the rigged caucuses. After a lot of arm-twisting and back room deals orchestrated by LBJ and Chicago Mayor Richard Daley, the unpledged delegates (there were many more back then) went to HH. The final delegate tally was Humphrey-1567.75 to McCarthy-1041.25. The party establishment machine exercising it's will over the choice of the voters was the cause of the rioting, and the devastating defeat to Richard Nixon. If the Party chooses to overrule the will of the people again, I predict a similar result...a deeply divided party and a big loss to the GOP in November.