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In reply to the discussion: NATO starts biggest ever drill in Poland amid security fears [View all]happyslug
(14,779 posts)You may not like Russia, but since the fall of the Soviet Union it has had election where anyone could vote, something Latvia and Estonia can NOT claim. Furthermore, the only time Russia has attacked any of the Baltic Countries is when they were allied with a hostile power. That was the case in 1940 when Stalin moved in (Estonia and Latvia both allied with Hitler even as Hitler was selling them to Stalin), and the case in the 1700s when Sweden use those Baltic Nations to attack Russia and in the 1300-1400 when the Teutonic Knights used them to attack Russia (These countries were also the base from where the Vikings starting in the 800s to move into Russia).
When Germany was defeated in 1918, Lenin left the Baltic Countries become free, for with a defeated and almost destroyed Germany, there were NOT a threat to Russia. The same thing happened in the 1990s, it was NOT NATO that kept those countries from being taken over by Russia after they had gain their independence, but that Russia did not see them as a threat for they were allied with no one.
That is the problem of the Baltic nations to Russia, they are the ideal bases to use to attack Russia. At least one study pointed out you needed a Armor CORP (100,000 men) to properly defend the Baltics from any Russian attack, and that much military power means, it could also take St Petersburg in 24 hours. That RAND study was reported on DU here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141454935
Thus to have enough force to STOP a Russian invasion of the Baltics, means to also have the force to take St Petersburgh and from St Petersburgh threaten Moscow. It is for THAT reason Moscow does NOT want the Baltics in NATO, it is a direct threat to Russia. Estonia and Latvia without an alliance with a major power are NOT a threat to Russia and thus Russia has left them alone when that was the situation, but that has NOT always been the case in the past and Russia has to plan to protect itself from invasion.
Please note, the RAND report indicated that the Russians, if they wanted the Baltics, could take the Baltics within 72 hours (and generally within 24 hours, 72 hours was the worse case study of a Russian attack). Shifting these troops to the Baltics does NOTHING but provoke Russia, it would be like the Russians moving Nuclear Missiles to Cuba (remember that debacle? the Soviet Union put those missiles to help defend Cuba from a US attack, the the US called those missiles a THREAT to the US and the US blockaded Cuba over it).
My point is the Baltics are to far from the rest of NATO and to close to Russia for the US to be in any form of alliance with them UNLESS the US wants to attack Russia. I oppose such an attack thus I oppose US and NATO troops in the Baltics for I know what such troops have been used in the past when it comes to Russia and the Baltics and so does Russia.