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In reply to the discussion: Federal judge ends Michigan presidential recount [View all]Hortensis
(58,785 posts)my understanding from reading what many experts have said is that the info gathering and analysis by the campaigns themselves (or for them by plutocrat-funded shadow operations) is the best available courtesy of those billion-dollar budgets campaigns have now. Pollsters and political statisticians and scientists who are not among those inside one of the campaigns can't begin to compete.
Again, though, a whole lot of considerations go into these decisions, not just numbers. I am simply not the kind of person who'd believe a candidate would be a good, competent president and then turn around and decide in frustration that the same candidate would be too stupid and feckless to deal with this situation responsibly and competently.
Have a nice evening.