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In reply to the discussion: Russian Breach of 39 States Threatens Future U.S. Elections [View all]Botany
(77,965 posts)The early vote should have made it all but mathematically impossible for Trump
to win the state.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/6/16/1100706/-Red-Shift-why-it-s-important
One of my favorite mathematicians is Richard Charnin, who on his website, using readily available public information, calculates the odds of the so-called red shift occurring from the 1988 to 2008 presidential elections. The red shift refers to the overwhelming pick up of votes by the Republican Party in recorded votes over what actual voters report to exit pollsters.
In Charnins analysis of exit poll data, we can say with a 95% confidence level that means in 95 out of 100 elections that the exit polls will fall within an statistically predictable margin of error. Charnin looked at 300 presidential state exit polls from 1988 to 2008, 15 elections would be expected to fall outside the margin of error. Shockingly, 137 of the 300 presidential exit polls fell outside the margin of error.
What is the probability of this happening? One in one million trillion trillion trlllion trillion trillion trillion, said Charnin....132 of the elections fell outside the margin in favor of the GOP. We would expect eight.
-Bob Fitzrakis in The Free Press, 6/13/12