Jobless rate soared to 14.7% in April as U.S. shed 20.5 million jobs amid coronavirus pandemic

[progree]

53. Then the survey size is of no importance? What the BLS reports on the sample size of the

Last edited Sat May 9, 2020, 04:41 PM - Edit history (1)

Household Survey (which is conducted by the Census Bureau, BTW) is total bullshit? Does the Statistical Abstract have monthly figures?

Anyway, I haven't read any commentator anywhere, ever, that says the small monthly Household Survey is a better indicator of the changes in jobs than the Establishment Survey. We do have your opinion, however. I have mine. When I find some authoritative source that agrees with you, I will take notice. But in all my years of reading commentary from economists, I've never seen such.

Maybe you can do some research for us on why everyone (media, pundits, economists) reports on the Establishment Survey for the job count numbers in thousands (and if they mention the Household Survey numbers, it's just a mention or a footnote). Except you. Maybe you are onto something. Maybe big. Maybe breaking. I don't have all the answers.

You might have missed my late edit in #48

Here's some more from an old post where I compared the volatility of the two, and the wild swings month-to-month in the Household Survey as compared to the Establishment Survey: https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=1935196

Here are the monthly changes in the Employed from the Household Survey, in thousands:
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000
2016: 503 510 258 -273 30 32 456 109 271 -24 146 63
2017: -30 447 472 156 -233 245 345 -74 906 -484 57
January and February data are affected by changes in population controls.

Notice how it bounces around -- not surprising with statistical sampling error alone being +/- 300,000 (for the unemployed -- I don't know what it is for the employed ). Do you really think the number of employed really bounces around like that from month to month? I don't. I don't think any economist does either.

Ignoring monthly changes in January and February, the population controls adjustment months, and leaving out the two outliers: -484,000 and +906,000, it bounces around between about -250,000 and +500,000

This is the non-farm employee count from the Establishment Survey, in thousands
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001

2016: 126 237 225 153 43 297 291 176 249 124 164 155
2017: 216 232 50 207 145 210 138 208 38 244(P) 228(P)
(P): Preliminary

With the much larger sample size of the Establishment Survey, and again throwing out the two outliers: +38,000 and +297,000, the monthly changes are much smoother, varying between about +40,000 and +290,000

Late edit 405p ET - the 2012 Statistical Abstract includes both the Population / Household Survey numbers and the Establishment Survey numbers, albeit in that order. They both have their strengths and weaknesses.