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In reply to the discussion: Jobless rate soared to 14.7% in April as U.S. shed 20.5 million jobs amid coronavirus pandemic [View all]progree
(13,088 posts)54. "When presidents crow about how "since taking office x million jobs have been created..."
Last edited Sat May 9, 2020, 03:39 PM - Edit history (2)
No, they are always talking about the Establishment Survey job count numbers because that's what I compare their statements to when they make them. And when I've checked the White House Council of Economic Advisers job count statements, they are also referring to the Establishment Survey numbers https://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/economy-jobs/
Here's the first paragraph of the lead article:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/aprils-job-losses-show-many-workers-still-connected-employers/
Over the past weeks, Americans efforts to slow COVID-19s spread have helped flatten the curve. As a result of this action, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) April Employment Situation report shows that nonfarm payroll employment fell by 20.5 million and the unemployment rate (U-3) jumped 10.3 percentage points to 14.7 percent. Both of these monthly changes are the largest in the series histories, as never before has the United States halted large portions of its economic activity.
I don't see any mention of the Household Survey's Employed anywhere in the report.
Show me any examples of the Trump / White House leading off with that, as opposed to the Establishment Survey numbers.
Edited to add another example from March 6 -- the first 2 paragraphs of which are
https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/job-creation-exceeds-expectations-women-workers-see-gains-2/
The U.S. labor market continues to build on its impressive gains over the past three years of the Trump Administration. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly Employment Situation release, nonfarm payroll employment increased by 273,000 in Februaryadding nearly 100,000 more jobs than market expectations.
Additionally, preliminary payroll growth estimates for January and December were revised upward by a total of 85,000 jobs, bringing the monthly average over the past three months to 243,000 new jobs. To put these gains in context, in only two months, the U.S. economy has added 105,000 more jobs than the Congressional Budget Office projected would be created over the entirety of calendar year 2020 (441,000) in its final pre-2016 election forecast.
Additionally, preliminary payroll growth estimates for January and December were revised upward by a total of 85,000 jobs, bringing the monthly average over the past three months to 243,000 new jobs. To put these gains in context, in only two months, the U.S. economy has added 105,000 more jobs than the Congressional Budget Office projected would be created over the entirety of calendar year 2020 (441,000) in its final pre-2016 election forecast.
No mention of the Household Survey's Employed there either. (full disclosure: it increased by only 45,000 in that month LNS12000000 )
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Jobless rate soared to 14.7% in April as U.S. shed 20.5 million jobs amid coronavirus pandemic [View all]
BumRushDaShow
May 2020
OP
I'm waiting for the usual crowd to start up with the "I don't trust the numbers" chant.
mahatmakanejeeves
May 2020
#6
It's fun, isn't it? I don't mean this month's numbers, but the constant hitting of
mahatmakanejeeves
May 2020
#13
"...brought employment to its lowest level since February 2011.." (?) Try June 1999, BLS.
sandensea
May 2020
#42
Looks right to me -- it's talking about the Establishment Survey's nonfarm payroll employment
progree
May 2020
#43
Which is funny, b/c they usually use the Population Survey as the metric for emp/unemp data
sandensea
May 2020
#47
The BLS always presented it this way -- the Establishment Survey data for the number of jobs, and
progree
May 2020
#48
I just gave it to you: The Statistical Abstract of the U.S. (as far back as you like)
sandensea
May 2020
#52
Then the survey size is of no importance? What the BLS reports on the sample size of the
progree
May 2020
#53
"When presidents crow about how "since taking office x million jobs have been created..."
progree
May 2020
#54
Interesting - the 2012 Statistical Abstract includes the Establishment Survey beginning
progree
May 2020
#56
And the DOW is up 300 points?!? They seeing a lot of good in 20M losing their jobs?
Bengus81
May 2020
#29
Yep....highest unemployment since the Great Depression but Wall St. says..eh,could have been worse!!
Bengus81
May 2020
#35
We've been reading all day Thursday that 33 million have filed unemployment claims, and the week
progree
May 2020
#34
Quick....tell investors that the BLS is looking at unemployment numbers of 35% in June
Bengus81
May 2020
#57
I agree, there will come a point when "horrible but not as bad as expected" no longer works n/t
progree
May 2020
#58
Coronavirus costs the U.S. 20.5 million jobs in April, unemployment soars to 14.7%
UpInArms
May 2020
#15
That will be the next data he will hide or modify to suit his reelection. They're not quite...
machoneman
May 2020
#20
Not as bad as expected, according to MarketWatch's 15 economists. S&P 500 up 1.19%, Dow up 1.36%
progree
May 2020
#28
Unemployment rate may be almost 5% higher than the reported 14.7%, says BLS in so many words:
progree
May 2020
#31
Here's the graph of the U-6 unemployment rate -- the broadest measure that BLS produces
progree
May 2020
#39
wait for Trump to accuse the BLS of being the dreaded "deep state" conspiracists and....
steve2470
May 2020
#40
"I will be the greatest jobs president that God has ever created," Trump, June 16th, 2015.
usregimechange
May 2020
#45