So people can take their pick. Both unfortunately show a considerable upturn in inflation in 2024 so far (with the core number showing a rise since August 2023)
On a 12 months basis the core CPI (without energy and food) is up 3.8%, while the CPI is up 3.5%.
The latest 3 month average increase for the core CPI is 4.5% while for the CPI it is 4.6% (both numbers annualized). ETA: And the increase in March was the same 0.4% for both measures (actual not annualized).
Anyway, neither the Fed nor any economists that I've ever heard of say that the core is the better indicator for past or present inflation. Our living standards are much better reflected by the regular one than the core one (the core measure is irrelevant for that purpose).
What they are saying that as a basis for projecting FUTURE inflation, the core is the better measure to use for that. I agree with them and you don't and that's fine. People are free to assume that because energy (which bounces wildly up and down and up and down and -- since mid-December -- sharply up) is going to keep increasing at this rate indefinitely. I'm free to assume that too, but I don't.
If there was a way to forecast energy prices into the future -- that has a reasonably good track record -- then the Fed should be using that and including it. But apparently there isn't one that I've heard of.
Anyway, whether we like it or not, valid or not, the Fed adjusts interest rates based on projections based on core inflation. As an investor concerned about interest rates, I have to live with that reality.
I wish I had a 12 month graph on energy or oil prices handy, to match my 12 month graphs on inflation, but I don't. I have this 6 month graph -- that is posted every market day in Stock Market Watch in the Economy Group -- example: https://www.democraticunderground.com/111697799
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