Germany says rebels used Ukranian missile to down MH17 passenger plane

[karynnj]

53. I agree - not to mention there is nothing that makes this intelligence report

Last edited Mon Oct 20, 2014, 12:11 PM - Edit history (1)

better than all other intelligence reports.

I agree with you on Occam's Razor, but that was not what I was referencing. For lack of any name, I would call it parents' wisdom. I don't know if you have children or not, but when mine were younger (they are now adults), whenever they changed stories or posited two or more conflicting reasons at the same time, they were less believable than when they had one straight forward response.

Here, they simultaneously pushed the ideas of a more defensible reason to shoot a plane (they were aiming at a Ukrainian jet and hit the higher flying passenger plane), and an alternative cause of the plane being downed (the jet shooting it down) -- while simultaneously denying that they shot down a plane. They also blamed Ukraine for not having asked that international travel avoid that area and the west for creating the situation that "forced" them to rebel. (They ignore that RUSSIA had pushed the Pro Russian President to renege on his campaign promise to work for the EU agreement. )

As to Occam's razor, we do have everything that RT and other siimilar sources claimed. You never have 100% of the facts. However, given what we do have, I suspect that one of the most likely possibilities is that the pro Russia rebels did obtain a BUK missile system and that they had at least one rebel who had worked with them either in the Soviet days or even since as part of the Ukrainian military. At that point, less powerful systems were shooting down Ukrainian jets and helicopters a few times a week. It could be that they did think the plane was a Ukrainian jet when they shot at it. Shooting Ukrainian jets was exactly what their purpose was then.

Under this scenario, no faction - not Ukraine, not Russia, not the rebels - INTENTIONALLY targeted a passenger plane killing hundreds of innocent people. Looking at all the rebels' explanations, there is not one word to suggest that they would have considered intentionally shooting down a plane as acceptable. Instead, you hear lots of effort to argue that even if they did hit the plane , the fault went to others for putting the plane where it was and causing them to think it was a Ukrainian jet.

( In fact, one of the most bizarre charges was that Ukraine purposely had the jet flying below the plane. Now consider the jet was both slower and flew lower. This hypothesizes that Ukraine constructed a model that would depend on the rebels missing the closer plane and hitting the higher plane that came in at a fast speed from the West. The amount of math needed (from data that had to be real time - even to create the situation (ignoring the rebel reaction) is pretty mind boggling. Add in that it is still far more likely that the rebels hit the closer, slower jet, this seems to be a pretty unlikely plan.)