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muriel_volestrangler

(101,595 posts)
16. Yeah, they'll carry on until there's a formal exit
Sun Jun 19, 2016, 04:22 AM
Jun 2016
Only Greenland (on achieving self-rule) and Algeria (on gaining independence from France) have left the European bloc, and the only legal pathway out of the current EU is through article 50, inserted in the 2009 Lisbon treaty. This allows a country two years to negotiate the terms of its exit from the moment it notifies the EU of its intention to leave. A Brexit vote does not represent that formal notification. Those playing for time will argue that six weeks must be allowed for legal challenges to the referendum result, so at the very least it might be best to wait for the result to be immune from legal interference.

But once the notification is triggered, negotiations cannot extend beyond a two-year notice period, unless all remaining EU member states agree to such an extension. It would therefore take just one member state to insist the divorce must happen at the end of the two years.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/31/what-happens-next-if-britain-votes-to-leave-the-eu

The form of any withdrawal agreement would depend on the negotiations and there is therefore no guarantee the UK would find the terms acceptable. The EU Treaties would cease to apply to the UK on the entry into force of a withdrawal agreement or, if no new agreement is concluded, after two years, unless there is unanimous agreement to extend the negotiating period.

During the two-year negotiation period, EU laws would still apply to the UK. The UK would continue to participate in other EU business as normal, but it would not participate in internal EU discussions or decisions on its own withdrawal. On the EU side, the agreement would be negotiated by the European Commission following a mandate from EU ministers and concluded by EU governments “acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.” This means that the European Parliament would be an additional unpredictable factor in striking a deal.

http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/the-mechanics-of-leaving-the-eu-explaining-article-50/
It'd make it a worse place, but I wouldn't go that far muriel_volestrangler Jun 2016 #1
It's how I felt in America when Bush won his second term. auntpurl Jun 2016 #2
... Ironing Man Jun 2016 #3
Yeah, nothing is going to happen even if Leave wins for something like 3 years auntpurl Jun 2016 #4
So the UK's MEPs would just go on being MEPs? Ken Burch Jun 2016 #15
Yeah, they'll carry on until there's a formal exit muriel_volestrangler Jun 2016 #16
We've talked about Scotland too as we live in Northumberland, only one stop away. non sociopath skin Jun 2016 #6
I left in 1987. Ghost Dog Jun 2016 #5
Not an option for me but, until this week, I hadn't even considered that the Leavers might win. Nihil Jun 2016 #7
We've got a similar issue with elderly family auntpurl Jun 2016 #8
I sympathise. Nihil Jun 2016 #9
Good point. auntpurl Jun 2016 #10
Fucking Murdoch's Sun... Ghost Dog Jun 2016 #11
Not in any imminent future... LeftishBrit Jun 2016 #12
I don't think anyone has any real idea of what's going to happen if we Leave auntpurl Jun 2016 #13
FWIW, the bookies' odds still show 'leave' as most likely muriel_volestrangler Jun 2016 #14
The unfortunate reality is if England votes Leave geardaddy Jun 2016 #17
Not to mention screwing over Scotland, Northern Ireland, and most of England! LeftishBrit Jun 2016 #18
Yes, indeed! geardaddy Jun 2016 #19
Welsh polls are very similar to whole-of-Britain ones muriel_volestrangler Jun 2016 #20
Agreed. geardaddy Jun 2016 #21
Depends where the manufacturing goes T_i_B Jun 2016 #22
A friend of mine is wondering about moving north of the border muriel_volestrangler Jun 2016 #23
I think they will need a fair bit of infrastructure T_i_B Jun 2016 #24
Well, all I can say to both of you is Denzil_DC Jun 2016 #25
My liver is going to improve because of this! T_i_B Jun 2016 #28
That is what concerns me auntpurl, and the potential for xenophobia to spread still_one Jun 2016 #26
Some people always say such things in advance of an unfortunate anticipated result of an election. Just reading posts Jun 2016 #27
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