Prediction: Who will win the Republican Primaries...it ain't Trump nor Cruz

[FrenchieCat]

Last edited Fri Feb 26, 2016, 11:36 PM - Edit history (3)

I.e., who our Democratic Nominee will face in the general election.

Those of us who believe that Donald Trump will be the eventual nominee are more than likely mistaken. Those of us who believe that the primary race is between The Donald and Cruz, I believe are also incorrect.

The way I see it, both of these men have been a distraction and a media shield for who will be the eventual nominee; Senator Marco Rubio.

If you haven’t noticed, Rubio has been in the middle of the pack all year. The review of his debates performances have been glowing, and although he has been polling 3rd in Iowa and New Hampshire for some time, the media has been oddly silent about him until very recently, while they discuss Trump and Cruz ad nauseas.

Rubio is the GOP establishment pick. He is the one that can bring in Latino Voters (so they think), excite enough of the Republican party youth, and win Florida (as he has already won statewide there).

He is a decent looking young guy; a mix between Rickie Ricardo and Frank Sinatra in appearance, has a cute family, a compelling life story, and can talk up an awfully good word salad (I've watched him on C-Span) that will leave many unclear without noticing. You will note how tough he's sounded on Foreign policy; the exact thing Republicans love to hear, as for them, that connotes strength. His only Tea Party failure is his noticeable participation on immigration policies, as he was 1 in the gang of 8 who attempted to fashion a bi-partisan somewhat reasonable policy. This may not play well in the primaries, but will play much better in the general election. Additionally, he is not another Bush aka Jeb.

The current strategy is to have him come in strong third in Iowa, and then, we will see him surging in New Hampshire, a state that dislikes Cruz, and although Trump is currently leading, the establishment will be working hard at bringing Trump down. I doubt Trump survives, as his intended use will have expired; to keep the country distracted during most of the pre-primaries.

After Iowa, some of the other losing establishment candidates will leave the race. More will quit after New Hampshire. This will consolidate the non-tea- party vote to Rubio, who polls show as 2nd or 3rd pick on most GOP voters' list.

If Rubio wins the primaries, he will most likely select former Ohio Governor John Kasich as his Vice President. That's why Kasich is even in the race. The Republicans need Ohio, and they need someone on the ticket that has not only won statewide there, is still liked by many, and almost sounds reasonable, especially after what has taken place during the Primaries…plus a la Biden, he will be more reassuring to Middle America quasi racists to have Kasich on the ticket, when there is a Cuban as the head of it. Please also note that Between Rubio and Kasich, the two have won almost all of the newspaper endorsements.

Rubio, they believe, is their Obama, and Kasich is their Biden.

The GOP Establishment does not believe that Republicans will vote for Hillary (that's why Rubio has to win, cause if Trump win, they just may), But they are worried about Women (who may stand in line for 7 hours to vote for the first woman Prez, including those single woman voters who have not bothered to vote as of yet), Minorities, and Middle of the road Independents (socially liberal, but fiscally conservative) who remember the 1990s as great economic years.

They also know for a fact that the country, in the majority, will not vote for a Green Party/Naderite/Democratic Socialist old guy screaming revolution from Vermont while demanding tax hikes, and another fight on health care, and free college (GOP will term that over and over again as the redistribution of wealth to give out free stuff and government controlled health care); not in Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Florida (and some other states as well). They also know that any National Security "October Surprise" will be the end of Sanders for sure, as long as they can present a somewhat "reasonable" alternative. If they can run against Sanders, far as they are concerned, they will end up winning and achieving their long awaited wet dream; a GOP Trifecta! That's why the GOP is (not so) silently rooting for Bernie Sanders to win the Primaries.

That's my analysis backing up my prediction.

(updated 2/11/16 - My Prediction was incorrect, as Robot Rubio proved to be nothing more than a lightweight, as GOP candidates normally are, but it showed early with this one - I'll write another one of these when I have a better inkling! LOL)

(updated 2/24/16 -= My Prediction may still be correct, as Rubio has been rehabilitated, and now is "bad boy Rubio". He is their last chance! So we shall see)