Weekend Economists Kickoff the Season, September 6-8, 2013

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44. The Incoming Economic Data Is Missing The Fed's Forecast

http://www.businessinsider.com/qe-taper-charts-2013-9

With the release of the August employment report we can update the unemployment rate chart that I'm using to track when the Fed will start tapering the QE3 purchases.

The September FOMC meeting is on the 17th and 18th. The employment report was the last key data that will be released before the September FOMC meeting.

At the June FOMC press conference, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said:

"If the incoming data are broadly consistent with this forecast, the Committee currently anticipates that it would be appropriate to moderate the monthly pace of purchases later this year. And if the subsequent data remain broadly aligned with our current expectations for the economy, we would continue to reduce the pace of purchases in measured steps through the first half of next year, ending purchases around midyear. In this scenario, when asset purchases ultimately come to an end, the unemployment rate would likely be in the vicinity of 7%, with solid economic growth supporting further job gains, a substantial improvement from the 8.1% unemployment rate that prevailed when the committee announced this program."



Read more: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/09/update-four-charts-to-track-timing-for.html#ixzz2eIQYTMRR