Dr Housing Bubble 08/18/14

[Crewleader]

Will the young buy homes? Student loans holding some young buyers back and household formation remains weak in the face of stagnant incomes.

Household formation is an important indicator of future housing demand. One of the big reasons why home builders have been tepid about building homes in the face of a growing population and rising prices is that first time home buyers are a small portion of the housing market. The reality is, you need household formation to justify bigger developments instead of investors looking for deals to flip or rent out. Home builders have been busy building multi-family units but these are clearly slated for rentals (the number of growing renting households would justify this). The odd dynamics in the current market have forced millions to live at home. In California 2.3 million adults live at home because of financial reasons, not because it is the new hip thing to do. In San Francisco, even well paid tech workers double or even triple up in apartments or homes to make the high rent affordable. What is probably more troubling in the data is that this trend is holding steady across the nation. Quality employment growth absolutely matters in the face of household formation. In the past, a boom in employment led to natural demand for housing. Today, you would have some believe that juiced up real estate and investor lust is somehow going to be the drawing force that lures cash strapped young buyers into the market. So far, those figures are not materializing.

Nationwide household formation requires quality employment

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/young-home-buyers-young-living-at-home-household-formation-demand/