Weekend Economists Second the Notion! December 12-14, 2014

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77. China PBOC Economist Says 2015 GDP Growth to Slow to 7.1 Percent

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-14/china-pboc-economist-says-2015-gdp-growth-to-slow-to-7-1-percent.html


China is likely to see economic expansion next year decelerate to 7.1 percent as a slowdown in real estate investment continues.

While growth may slow, the outlook for employment and inflation remains stable, and labor-market conditions won’t be a major concern, Ma Jun, chief economist of the People’s Bank of China’s research center, wrote in a working paper dated Dec. 12. The growth projection compares with the monetary authority’s forecast for 7.4 percent expansion this year, the slowest pace since 1990.

“The downward pressure caused by the slowdown in real estate investment” will drag on any gains to growth from an acceleration in exports, Ma wrote.

The world’s second-largest economy showed further signs of weakness last month with factory shutdowns exacerbating sluggish demand. Bloomberg’s gross domestic product tracker came in at 6.78 percent year-on-year in November, down from 6.91 percent in October and the fourth month below 7 percent, according to a preliminary reading.