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Demeter

(85,373 posts)
20. MULTIPLE WORSE CASE SCENARIOS
Mon Feb 20, 2012, 09:51 AM
Feb 2012

THE TROUBLE with the future of power isn’t that there is one big problem that could croak us. It’s that there are a host of them, any one of which could croak us. Let’s group them into three categories.

Bucket No. 1 involves what the insurance-policy fine print calls “Acts of God.’’ Here we’re talking about all those “storms of the century’’ that seem to be arriving with unsettling frequency. Although people can debate the reasons behind it, by now the trend is clear, says Tierney, a partner with Boston-based Analysis Group. “Extreme weather events will be more common.’’ In fact, the government recorded more extreme-weather disasters in the United States in 2011 alone than it did in all of the 1980s combined. And as the Halloween storm showed, even people in neighborhoods with underground power lines won’t necessarily escape outages, because those lines are fed somewhere along the route by aboveground equipment...What’s more, Mother Nature can hit us with a lot more than just high winds and heavy snow. Consider the solar storm. Magnetic activity of the sun can cause severe disturbances in the upper atmosphere that can seriously damage our electrical grid, corrode oil and gas pipelines, and mess with high-frequency radio communications and GPS satellites. This isn’t some science-fiction plotline. It took just 90 seconds for a 1989 solar storm to cause the collapse of the Hydro-Quebec power grid, leaving 6 million Canadians without power for up to nine hours. A 2008 NASA-funded report noted the risk of significant damage to our interconnected grid in light of the forecast for increased solar activity. The 11-year solar cycle is expected to peak in 2013, and just two weeks ago we saw one of the biggest solar-radiation storms in years. Although that event left us unharmed, one model predicts that if we suffer a solar storm similar in intensity to one back in 1921, which was 10 times bigger than the 1989 Canadian storm, more than 130 million people could be left in the dark.

Let’s call Bucket No. 2 “Acts of Terrorists.’’ Among these, there’s the old-fashioned physical attack on the bulk power system, either at its source of generation or somewhere along its transmission route. There’s the newfangled cyber attack on the computers controlling our interconnected grid. And then there’s the otherworldly-sounding attack by an electromagnetic pulse, or EMP, weapon...Analyst Sue Tierney is far more concerned about cyber threats. No bomb needed - just serious hacking qualifications, and these days it seems everybody knows a gloomy 17-year-old who’s got those. In what is widely believed to have been an Israeli-American covert effort, the Stuxnet computer worm was unleashed on the Iranian nuclear program in 2010, ruining about a fifth of the centrifuges the country uses to enrich uranium. It would be naive to think our country won’t eventually find itself on the other side of a similar attack....

Finally, Bucket No. 3 is the “Ailing Grid’’ itself. In many places, the infrastructure is as old and stooped as a pensioner. As it is upgraded and its capacity is expanded, our rapacious need for more electrical power races to max it out once again. Many of the new sources of power that were promised as solutions for tomorrow - think nuclear - now seem dated and misguided. Who’s going to greenlight a new nuclear power plant around here after what happened in Japan? As it is, there are mounting questions about the future of nuclear power plants in Massachusetts and Vermont, and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is pushing to close down that state’s Indian Point nuclear plant, which helps light up Manhattan’s skyscrapers. Indian Point’s backers are pushing back, producing pamphlets that depict kids doing homework by candlelight - burn those pencils, baby - and moms preparing dinner while wearing headlamps....


About the "cartoon" Tansy_Gold Feb 2012 #1
What year are we in again? How did I get here? How do I get out?..sigh kickysnana Feb 2012 #2
Questions hamerfan Feb 2012 #3
*eeeeee!!!* TalkingDog Feb 2012 #41
It's the Gay Agenda taking over the Republican Party... rfranklin Feb 2012 #6
It already is Warpy Feb 2012 #58
There's a McCain ad in GD to go with the toon Po_d Mainiac Feb 2012 #8
3 Myths Drive Europe’s Response to Debt Crisis: Harald Uhlig Demeter Feb 2012 #4
I haven't seen such baaad stoopid in a long time. Tansy_Gold Feb 2012 #7
Counterfeit Value Derivatives: Follow the Bouncing Ball Zeus Yiamouyiannis. Demeter Feb 2012 #5
What Lies In Store For The "Cradle That Rocks The World" - A History Lesson In Crisis Demeter Feb 2012 #9
Community Thursday: What’s More Precious than Gold? Demeter Feb 2012 #10
Avoid Social Breakdown. Become Resilient. Demeter Feb 2012 #11
The Little Economy That Could Demeter Feb 2012 #12
What if the lights go out? Demeter Feb 2012 #17
MULTIPLE WORSE CASE SCENARIOS Demeter Feb 2012 #20
When Houston was hit by Hurricane Ike..... AnneD Feb 2012 #54
Yes, that works for short-term Demeter Feb 2012 #61
So true, my friend... AnneD Feb 2012 #67
A Mortgage Tornado Warning, Unheeded Demeter Feb 2012 #13
ART CASHIN: Beware The Ides Of March—Or Maybe A Few Days Later Demeter Feb 2012 #14
An Incredible Photo Tour Of America's Wealthiest Zip Code Demeter Feb 2012 #15
Lloyd Blankfein Seen Lunching In Boca With A Certain Former President Joe Weisenthal, Julie Zeveloff Demeter Feb 2012 #16
Living well and doing God's work. Suck it dry Lloyd, suck it dry. n/t Hotler Feb 2012 #70
well it snowed -- most of it has melted off -- but it's cold enough to freeze xchrom Feb 2012 #18
br-r-r-r-r-r-r-r-r-r-r-r Tansy_Gold Feb 2012 #21
... xchrom Feb 2012 #27
This was the second really hard frost night Demeter Feb 2012 #23
i think they will be ok -- xchrom Feb 2012 #28
Weeks? Try MONTHS Demeter Feb 2012 #31
yeah -- i love 'em. xchrom Feb 2012 #32
So I guess that means they're not going to work in AZ? Tansy_Gold Feb 2012 #33
no. they won't work in AZ. but lily of the valley might xchrom Feb 2012 #35
Oh, I love lily of the valley! Tansy_Gold Feb 2012 #37
my grandma and my mom grew them. xchrom Feb 2012 #38
Love love love Lilly of the Valley bread_and_roses Feb 2012 #39
yeah -- they're lovely. xchrom Feb 2012 #42
Maybe change her name? (LOL & n/t) bread_and_roses Feb 2012 #44
Shred? xchrom Feb 2012 #47
There are pink ones, too Demeter Feb 2012 #51
Bank of Ireland returns to net profit, deposits up xchrom Feb 2012 #19
For Mardi Gras float makers, next year is here xchrom Feb 2012 #22
The four seasons of Louisanna... AnneD Feb 2012 #55
What If We're Beyond Mere Policy Tweaks? Demeter Feb 2012 #24
America Is Just Going Through the Motions (November 19, 2010) Demeter Feb 2012 #25
Icelandic Anger Brings Debt Forgiveness DemReadingDU Feb 2012 #26
Iceland's financial watchdog sacks director Demeter Feb 2012 #62
‘There Is Not Enough Work’: Nearly Half of Mexicans Now Officially Poor xchrom Feb 2012 #29
NEWS FLASH! Demeter Feb 2012 #30
good thoughts! xchrom Feb 2012 #34
Vulture Capitalism Gets a Makeover xchrom Feb 2012 #36
84 Percent of San Francisco Foreclosures Fraudulent--Why are Bankers Still Getting Away with Crimes? xchrom Feb 2012 #40
Goldman Sachs ex-programmer freed from prison and another under investigation TalkingDog Feb 2012 #43
Price hikes catch up to U.S. food makers Roland99 Feb 2012 #45
Since the economy has been in a downturn.... AnneD Feb 2012 #63
My wife just nabbed 8 boxes of Kellogg's cereals for less than $10 Roland99 Feb 2012 #71
The only way to go.... AnneD Feb 2012 #73
Markets Insight - Tim Bond: Bull run to be powered by low valuations Demeter Feb 2012 #46
DILBERT ON THE WEB Demeter Feb 2012 #48
Peter Skyllberg, Swedish Man, Survived Two Months In Snow-Covered Car (VIDEO) Demeter Feb 2012 #49
Japan registers record deficit in January xchrom Feb 2012 #50
(oops) How Greece Could Take Down Wall Street by Ellen Brown Demeter Feb 2012 #52
Lab-grown meat is first step to artificial hamburger Demeter Feb 2012 #53
I know how I feel.... AnneD Feb 2012 #64
Thumbs down for me. hamerfan Feb 2012 #65
Germany, Greece Quietly Prepare For "Plan D" Demeter Feb 2012 #56
Company Faces Forgery Charges in Mo. Foreclosures By GRETCHEN MORGENSON Demeter Feb 2012 #57
Detroit squatters may be allowed to keep foreclosed homes Demeter Feb 2012 #59
Cleveland: City mistakenly boards up man's home Demeter Feb 2012 #60
It is worth it only if..... AnneD Feb 2012 #68
(It's Bupkis) Demeter Feb 2012 #69
Thanks.... AnneD Feb 2012 #72
You're welcome, AnneD Demeter Feb 2012 #74
Oh... AnneD Feb 2012 #75
The Kid is Indisposed Today Demeter Feb 2012 #66
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