Weekend Economists Piece for Peace April 3-5, 2015

[Demeter]

83. Air Pocket

http://economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/2015/04/air-pocket.html

The employment data hit an air pocket in March, in line with a variety of softer economic news in the first quarter. That said, it likely will have little near term impact on Fed policy; I anticipate they will tend to dismiss the number as expected volatility in the overall upward path of job growth.

Job growth was paltry 126k in March and, in what might be a greater indication that US labor markets are hitting an inflection point, the January and February numbers were revised downward. The three-month moving average dipped sharply, while the 12-month moving average is leveling out:

I CAN'T COPY THESE GRAPHS, EITHER...THEY HAVE DEFEATED MY EASY FIX!

OPINIONS OF VARIOUS FED RESERVE OFFICIALS FOLLOW:

Bottom Line: One jobs report is just that - one report. It needs to be placed in context of subsequent reports to confirm or deny the underlying trend, at least as far as policymakers are concerned. At the moment they seem content to believe the first quarter will be an aberration overall. If it looks like less of an aberration come June, they will be forced to push normalization plans back into the fourth quarter. This would make them less than happy.