Environment & Energy

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)

15. Au contraire, mon frère

Fri May 23, 2014, 09:11 AM

May 2014

I claim (as do many systems scientists) that it is impossible to predict the place or timing of significant ruptures in a system this complex. Because of that, it would be hubristic for me to predict a date and time, and humble for me to decline.

Here is a four-page paper that outlines very clearly (in 18 very short paragraphs) why I take the position I do on the world system, and why I decline to make predictions of failure.

How Complex Systems Fail (PDF)

You are attempting to play a game of gotcha, which I also decline. It would only be ego and hubris that would make me rise to such bait.

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21 replies

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Reuters: 100 mln will die by 2030 if world fails to act on climate - report [View all] GliderGuider May 2014 OP

Of course, a billion will die by then from natural causes. But still... nt GliderGuider May 2014 #1

Is the study suggesting that.... AZ Mike May 2014 #2

Yes, that's the implication. nt GliderGuider May 2014 #5

That is the problem with these types of 'studies' LouisvilleDem May 2014 #3

Scare quotes don't invalidate such analyses Jim Lane May 2014 #4

Not true LouisvilleDem May 2014 #6

I think your view of science is way off. Jim Lane May 2014 #7

Now that part is true LouisvilleDem May 2014 #10

Lost GDP growth projections are interesting caraher May 2014 #8

"Lost GDP" estimates fail to take system fragility into account GliderGuider May 2014 #9

How about putting a time frame on all your doom and gloom? LouisvilleDem May 2014 #11

Why? What would it add? GliderGuider May 2014 #12

It would show some humility LouisvilleDem May 2014 #13

I've heard a few "doomers" hazard guesses at dates caraher May 2014 #14

Depends on the speed of the collapse predicted LouisvilleDem May 2014 #17

You can certainly judge particular claims that way caraher May 2014 #18

Au contraire, mon frère GliderGuider May 2014 #15

Question LouisvilleDem May 2014 #16

What are you interested in having me be wrong about? GliderGuider May 2014 #19

A Fair Question LouisvilleDem May 2014 #20

If I were to label myself GliderGuider May 2014 #21