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Environment & Energy
In reply to the discussion: Catastrophic Sea Level Rise within Three Generations [View all]xrm67
(21 posts)25. Earth Sensitivity to Human Forcings is what matters
Last edited Fri Apr 10, 2015, 01:37 AM - Edit history (1)
The Earth's climate turned out to be much more sensitive to human forcings than most could imagine:
Its Worse Than We Thought New Study Finds That Earth is Warming Far Faster Than Expected
Earlier this week, a new study emerged showing that the world was indeed warming far faster than expected. The study, which aimed sensors at the top 700 meters of the World Ocean, found that waters had warmed to a far greater extent than our limited models, satellites, and sensors had captured. In particular, the Southern Ocean showed much greater warming than was previously anticipated.
Winds and a very active downwelling, likely driven by a combined freshening of water near Antarctica and an increased salinity due to warming near the equator, drove an extraordinary volume of heat into these waters. An extra heat in the oceans that was 24 to 58 percent higher than previous estimates. An extraordinary rate of uptake earlier measures had missed...
...This observation led New Scientist to make the following rather blunt statement:
"Its worse than we thought. Scientists may have hugely underestimated the extent of global warming because temperature readings from southern hemisphere seas were inaccurate."
The implications of finding this extra heat are rather significant. For one, it upends current Equilibrium Climate Science. Gavin Schimdt Chief NASA GISS scientist over at RealClimate, noted that the studys findings would increase ECS ranges from 1.1 to 4.1 C to 1.1 to 4.7 C (a 15% percent increase by Gavins calculation). This increase shows that the Earth System may well be both far more sensitive to current human heat forcing and may well be likely to warm far faster this century than scientists had previously hoped. For broader context, its worth noting that the scientific community generally considers ECS to be in the range of 1.5 to 4.5 C (3 C average). And any analysis of the new findings is likely to push sensitivity to the higher range of these scales.
Dr Wenju Cai from CSIRO in Australia added by noting that the results mean the world is warming far faster than we thought:
The implication is that the energy imbalance the net heating of the earth would have to be bigger, he says.
Higher rates of Earth Systems responses to human heat forcing this century and a larger net energy imbalance in the global system together spell very bad news. What this means is that there is both more heat forcing now than we at first expected and that that heat forcing is likely to bring about more extreme climate consequences far sooner than we had initially hoped.
These findings are new and will take some time to ring through the scientific community.
And as I have said repeatedly, this is borne out by the recent discovery of a doubling time of less than five years in Greenland and Antarctic ice melt:
Greenland And West Antarctic Ice Sheet Loss More Than Doubled In Last Five Years
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...for each meter of sea level rise, the coastline is eroded, over time, by 100 meters.
xrm67
Apr 2015
#2
“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.
dixiegrrrrl
Apr 2015
#4
That's the first time you've mentioned freshwater, or inland glaciers
muriel_volestrangler
Apr 2015
#13
Freshwater pulses slowing down ocean currents has nothing to do with sea level or ice area
muriel_volestrangler
Apr 2015
#15
I will write a blog post about this and hopefully answer your questions once and for all.
xrm67
Apr 2015
#19
Again, no doubling period has been 'established' for sea level rise
muriel_volestrangler
Apr 2015
#22
2 data points for ice loss does not mean 'exponential sea level rise'
muriel_volestrangler
Apr 2015
#27
Any rational person can now see than an exponential doubling period has been established
xrm67
Apr 2015
#28
If you watch the video of Box I linked to in #22, you see he got the 69 feet from Alley
muriel_volestrangler
Apr 2015
#30
If it's in fits and starts, it's not exponential, by definition (nt)
muriel_volestrangler
Apr 2015
#45
Any process for something to be exponential while having gaps when nothing happens
muriel_volestrangler
Apr 2015
#52
Limits to Growth projections were correct... We're on track for collapse of industrial civilization
xrm67
Apr 2015
#12
Yes, I'm sure they're all wrong. Where's my TV remote? Pass me the buttered popcorn.
xrm67
Apr 2015
#23
What's your opinion of the Earth System sensitivity estimate by Wasdell et al
GliderGuider
Apr 2015
#29