2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: The "Democratic" Party has lost its soul. [View all]4lbs
(6,855 posts)Mainly, the minority voters.
Every state which has a huge minority population and Democratic electorate, Clinton had or has a large lead.
Every state which is 75% or more white of the Democratic electorate, Sanders has the lead.
Clinton led SC by 35 points going up to the primary, and won by almost 50.
Clinton is currently leading by 30+ points in Georgia and Tennessee.
Clinton is currently leading by 20 points in Texas.
Clinton is leading by almost 20 points in Florida.
Clinton has a big lead in New York and California as well, although those primaries are a ways off.
What do all those states have in common? Minorities make up more than 50% of the Democratic party in those states.
Look at all the states that Sanders has a sizable lead over Clinton. What is the common ethnic makeup in them? They are hugely white Democratic electorates.
Furthermore, the youth vote, while being passionate, has historically been unreliable at the voting booths. Makes for great TV screenshots and cell phone snapshots on social media of the rallies, but what about the voting booths?
Why did Sanders lose SC so badly? The "youth" vote (ages 17 to 30), did not show up at the voting booths and caucus places. Sure, they filled up his rallies with lines a mile long. But when it came time to actually vote, they didn't.
In SC, the older voters (45+ years old), showed up in nearly the same amount as in 2008.
This Democratic campaign isn't about the big bad evil DNC, but more about two things:
1.) Minorities overwhelmingly support one candidate more than the other.
What does it say when one candidate has a 60 to 70 point lead over the other, among African-Americans?
What does it say when one candidate has a 30 to 40 point lead over the other, among Latinos?
2.) Young voters show up at rallies, but not the voting booths.
What does it say when older voters show up in the voting booths at almost the same amount and rate as in 2008, but the young voters don't?
Clinton is getting her supporters out to vote. Sanders isn't.
Clinton has huge support among minorities. Sanders doesn't.
There is no great conspiracy. The voters are speaking with VOTES. Well, not all of them. Some just go to rallies and don't vote on the day of their primary/caucus.