Check out FiveThirtyEight's crash and burn: (Reply #16)

In the discussion thread: It breaks my heart as a statistical analyst to do this, but the polling. The polling done be [View all]

Response to Godhumor (Original post)

Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:05 PM

DirkGently (12,151 posts)

16. Check out FiveThirtyEight's crash and burn:

According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton has a greater than 99% chance of winning the Michigan primary.

POLLSTER SAMPLE WEIGHT LEADER
CLINTON
SANDERS
• MAR. 6 Mitchell Research & Communications 475 LV
0.82
Clinton +37
66%
29%
• MAR. 3-6 Monmouth University 302 LV
0.66
Clinton +13
55%
42%
• MAR. 2-4 YouGov 597 LV
0.50
Clinton +11
55%
44%
• MAR. 1-3 Marist College 546 LV
0.50
Clinton +17
57%
40%
• MAR. 4-5 American Research Group 400 LV
0.48
Clinton +24
60%
36%
• FEB. 29-MAR. 1 EPIC-MRA 400 LV
0.18
Clinton +25
56%
31%
• MAR. 2-3 Mitchell Research & Communications 616 LV
0.10
Clinton +18
55%
37%
FEB. 22-27 Marketing Resource Group (MRG) 218 LV
0.04
Clinton +20
56%
36%
• JAN. 25-MAR. 3 Michigan State University 262 LV
0.03
Clinton +5
52%
47%
• MAR. 1 Mitchell Research & Communications

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/

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Replies to this discussion thread

37 replies	Author	Time	Post
It breaks my heart as a statistical analyst to do this, but the polling. The polling done be [View all]	Godhumor	Mar 2016	OP
They must not be accounting for independents	vdogg	Mar 2016	#1
Independents can still vote in closed primary states	TM99	Mar 2016	#8
Registered Democrats Are Going for Clinton by about 16% or So	Stallion	Mar 2016	#2
Chuck Toad just said there could be 300K more votes to count....??????	MADem	Mar 2016	#3
No way.	vdogg	Mar 2016	#6
He said he really didn't know, and they didn't know where all the outstanding	MADem	Mar 2016	#13
Does anyone have a list of which of the remaining states are actually closed primary states?	vdogg	Mar 2016	#4
Land lines	Warren DeMontague	Mar 2016	#5
Trying to figure out a decent likely voter screen in a "change" election is a guessing game. n/t	winter is coming	Mar 2016	#7
you have been as even-handed as one could expect	ibegurpard	Mar 2016	#9
+1 I agree!	tex-wyo-dem	Mar 2016	#33
This reminds me of Ohio in 2012	vdogg	Mar 2016	#10
Wayne county (Detroit) is where Clinton is doing best	jeff47	Mar 2016	#21
Yup	ismnotwasm	Mar 2016	#11
YUUUGE gain for Sanders.	Hiraeth	Mar 2016	#32
That is why you do NOT take polling for granted.	Uglystick	Mar 2016	#12
Aren't you a peach n/t	Godhumor	Mar 2016	#19
a fresh one too	Kalidurga	Mar 2016	#27
Thank you for your honesty.	reformist2	Mar 2016	#14
At the start of the primary I said the polling was heading into uncharted territory.	madfloridian	Mar 2016	#15
Check out FiveThirtyEight's crash and burn:	DirkGently	Mar 2016	#16
The polls are biased and will have to adjust their sampling assumptions or	wilsonbooks	Mar 2016	#17
I really appreciate you admitting this.	TM99	Mar 2016	#18
So many polls in the world have been way off.	Lucky Luciano	Mar 2016	#20
Voters this year are not	superkona	Mar 2016	#22
Well, that's all she wrote	vdogg	Mar 2016	#23
I would really love to know who "other" is	vdogg	Mar 2016	#24
Something to watch for	vdogg	Mar 2016	#25
Kos had an even worse night than Hillary	BeyondGeography	Mar 2016	#26
His mailbox must be hopping right now n/t	Godhumor	Mar 2016	#28
Well earned	BeyondGeography	Mar 2016	#31
Welcome to the 21st century.	longship	Mar 2016	#29
gigo	Hiraeth	Mar 2016	#30
KnR good read. nt	retrowire	Mar 2016	#34
Basic problem: primary polling doesn't work.	JackRiddler	Mar 2016	#35
I posted in another thread that the pollsters	applegrove	Mar 2016	#36
k & r	avaistheone1	Mar 2016	#37

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