2016 Postmortem

DirkGently

(12,151 posts)

16. Check out FiveThirtyEight's crash and burn:

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 12:05 AM

Mar 2016

According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton has a greater than 99% chance of winning the Michigan primary.

POLLSTER SAMPLE WEIGHT LEADER
CLINTON
SANDERS
• MAR. 6 Mitchell Research & Communications 475 LV
0.82
Clinton +37
66%
29%
• MAR. 3-6 Monmouth University 302 LV
0.66
Clinton +13
55%
42%
• MAR. 2-4 YouGov 597 LV
0.50
Clinton +11
55%
44%
• MAR. 1-3 Marist College 546 LV
0.50
Clinton +17
57%
40%
• MAR. 4-5 American Research Group 400 LV
0.48
Clinton +24
60%
36%
• FEB. 29-MAR. 1 EPIC-MRA 400 LV
0.18
Clinton +25
56%
31%
• MAR. 2-3 Mitchell Research & Communications 616 LV
0.10
Clinton +18
55%
37%
FEB. 22-27 Marketing Resource Group (MRG) 218 LV
0.04
Clinton +20
56%
36%
• JAN. 25-MAR. 3 Michigan State University 262 LV
0.03
Clinton +5
52%
47%
• MAR. 1 Mitchell Research & Communications

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/

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Highlight:

It breaks my heart as a statistical analyst to do this, but the polling. The polling done be [View all] Godhumor Mar 2016 OP

They must not be accounting for independents vdogg Mar 2016 #1

Independents can still vote in closed primary states TM99 Mar 2016 #8

Registered Democrats Are Going for Clinton by about 16% or So Stallion Mar 2016 #2

Chuck Toad just said there could be 300K more votes to count....?????? MADem Mar 2016 #3

No way. vdogg Mar 2016 #6

He said he really didn't know, and they didn't know where all the outstanding MADem Mar 2016 #13

Does anyone have a list of which of the remaining states are actually closed primary states? vdogg Mar 2016 #4

Land lines Warren DeMontague Mar 2016 #5

Trying to figure out a decent likely voter screen in a "change" election is a guessing game. n/t winter is coming Mar 2016 #7

you have been as even-handed as one could expect ibegurpard Mar 2016 #9

+1 I agree! tex-wyo-dem Mar 2016 #33

This reminds me of Ohio in 2012 vdogg Mar 2016 #10

Wayne county (Detroit) is where Clinton is doing best jeff47 Mar 2016 #21

Yup ismnotwasm Mar 2016 #11

YUUUGE gain for Sanders. Hiraeth Mar 2016 #32

That is why you do *NOT* take polling for granted. Uglystick Mar 2016 #12

Aren't you a peach n/t Godhumor Mar 2016 #19

a fresh one too Kalidurga Mar 2016 #27

Thank you for your honesty. reformist2 Mar 2016 #14

At the start of the primary I said the polling was heading into uncharted territory. madfloridian Mar 2016 #15

Check out FiveThirtyEight's crash and burn: DirkGently Mar 2016 #16

The polls are biased and will have to adjust their sampling assumptions or wilsonbooks Mar 2016 #17

I really appreciate you admitting this. TM99 Mar 2016 #18

So many polls in the world have been way off. Lucky Luciano Mar 2016 #20

Voters this year are not superkona Mar 2016 #22

Well, that's all she wrote vdogg Mar 2016 #23

I would really love to know who "other" is vdogg Mar 2016 #24

Something to watch for vdogg Mar 2016 #25

Kos had an even worse night than Hillary BeyondGeography Mar 2016 #26

His mailbox must be hopping right now n/t Godhumor Mar 2016 #28

Well earned BeyondGeography Mar 2016 #31

Welcome to the 21st century. longship Mar 2016 #29

gigo Hiraeth Mar 2016 #30

KnR good read. nt retrowire Mar 2016 #34

Basic problem: primary polling doesn't work. JackRiddler Mar 2016 #35

I posted in another thread that the pollsters applegrove Mar 2016 #36

k & r avaistheone1 Mar 2016 #37