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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Hypothetical Question: What if the early Primaries are inconclusive? [View all]Gothmog
(145,910 posts)27. What Happens If Bernie Wins Iowa and New Hampshire?
Here is another good analysis that agrees with Nate Silver http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/01/11/bernie_sanders_could_win_iowa_and_new_hampshire.html
What would not change, though, is that Clinton would remain the clear favorite for the Democratic nomination.
Even if Hillary staggers out of New Hampshire with her second loss in as many contests, shell still have the same massive advantages she enjoys today: the campaign and super PAC cash, the ground game, the endorsements, the pledged superdelegates, and the general support of a party establishment that wont soon forget that her challenger is not technically even a part of the Democratic Party. An unexpected loss in Iowa and a less surprising one in New Hampshire wouldnt change that.
Shed also have a chance to get back on her feetand fast. Consider what comes next: Nevada (Feb. 20) and South Carolina (Feb. 27), two significantly more diverse states than lily-white Iowa and lily-whiter New Hampshire, and two places where Clinton currently enjoys massive leads in the polls. According to the RealClearPolitics rolling average, Clinton holds a 20-point advantage in Nevada and a whopping 40-point lead in South Carolina. March brings better news still for the former secretary of state, starting with a Super Tuesday slate that includes friendly territory in the form of southern states like Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. The rest of the month, meanwhile, includes several big, delegate-rich contests that she won eight years ago during her battle with Barack Obama: Michigan, Florida, and Ohio. Yes, Sanders could have the momentum this time next month, but itll be on him to to find a way to keep it as he heads into significantly more challenging terrain than Iowa or New Hampshire, which were always going to offer his best chance at pulling off an early upset or two.
None of this is to say that Clinton has the nomination locked up already. She doesnt. But if Iowa and New Hampshire are must-wins for anyone, its Sanders. Hillary canand likely wouldsurvive a slow start and still be the one standing on stage at the Democratic National Convention when the balloons come down this summer. Bernie, though, has no such margin of error.
Even if Hillary staggers out of New Hampshire with her second loss in as many contests, shell still have the same massive advantages she enjoys today: the campaign and super PAC cash, the ground game, the endorsements, the pledged superdelegates, and the general support of a party establishment that wont soon forget that her challenger is not technically even a part of the Democratic Party. An unexpected loss in Iowa and a less surprising one in New Hampshire wouldnt change that.
Shed also have a chance to get back on her feetand fast. Consider what comes next: Nevada (Feb. 20) and South Carolina (Feb. 27), two significantly more diverse states than lily-white Iowa and lily-whiter New Hampshire, and two places where Clinton currently enjoys massive leads in the polls. According to the RealClearPolitics rolling average, Clinton holds a 20-point advantage in Nevada and a whopping 40-point lead in South Carolina. March brings better news still for the former secretary of state, starting with a Super Tuesday slate that includes friendly territory in the form of southern states like Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. The rest of the month, meanwhile, includes several big, delegate-rich contests that she won eight years ago during her battle with Barack Obama: Michigan, Florida, and Ohio. Yes, Sanders could have the momentum this time next month, but itll be on him to to find a way to keep it as he heads into significantly more challenging terrain than Iowa or New Hampshire, which were always going to offer his best chance at pulling off an early upset or two.
None of this is to say that Clinton has the nomination locked up already. She doesnt. But if Iowa and New Hampshire are must-wins for anyone, its Sanders. Hillary canand likely wouldsurvive a slow start and still be the one standing on stage at the Democratic National Convention when the balloons come down this summer. Bernie, though, has no such margin of error.
Sanders is doing well in states with 90+% white voting populations and these states are not sufficient for Sanders to win the nomination. There are four states where Sanders is polling well: Utah, Iowa, New Hampshire and Vermont. Texas alone has almost twice the number of delegates as these four states combined.
Sanders need to expand his base beyond the current very narrow demographic. Otherwise, he will not be the nominee
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Hypothetical Question: What if the early Primaries are inconclusive? [View all]
Armstead
Jan 2016
OP
...and therefore, we should all vote for Clinton now to avoid a damaging primary battle.
DisgustipatedinCA
Jan 2016
#3
Have there been any polling showing Latino voters moving into the Sanders camp?
Gothmog
Jan 2016
#30
It'll do that too, ultimately but I hope you're not saying votes in the primary don't matter
Armstead
Jan 2016
#20