Democrats May Keep Bernie Sanders Off New York Primary Ballot

[Jim Lane]

47. I think you're too optimistic about the timing.

You write: "I could be wrong, but I suspect that it is in some ways too late to make the decision that he can not run as a Democrat now -- weeks after he effectively entered the race."

The procedure in New York (unless it's changed lately) is that anyone who wants to run in a Presidential primary must submit enough petition signatures from enrolled members of that party. The rules on petitioning are very precise, including the requirement that all the necessary signatures be gathered during a specified time period. Petitions are subject to challenge for failing to meet one of the requirements. The Board of Elections reviews submitted petitions, reviews and rules on challenges, and announces whether the candidate has qualified for the ballot. Then, quite often, everyone goes to court.

I don't see how Sanders's announcement would trigger a deadline -- binding on Democratic Party officials, Clinton campaign operatives, or anyone else -- for raising the eligibility issue. (If I announce that I'm running for the Republican nomination, does the GOP have to issue a press release pointing out that I'm a registered Democrat? If so, we should all announce, and keep them busy that way.)

My prediction about the process and the timing: Sanders will submit plenty of petition signatures. The Board of Elections will hear the argument that he's ineligible, along with any challenges that might reduce his valid signatures below the threshold. The Board will rule on whether he's to appear on the primary ballot. Somebody won't like the decision and will take it to court. Somebody won't like that court's decision and will file an appeal. Until a few days before the primary, it won't be completely clear that people will be able to vote for Sanders, meaning that his campaign will suffer somewhat even if he ultimately wins on the issue. Clinton and everyone on her staff will swear up and down that they had absolutely nothing to do with the challenge.

ETA: I meant to mention that I completely agree with you about the Nader campaign. Sanders is doing what Nader should have done -- run in the Democratic primaries so as not to split the vote in the general election. I also strongly agree with you that pulling a maneuver like this against Sanders would generate a lot of animosity. Some people would switch from "OK, we lost the nomination fight, I'll hold my nose and vote for Hillary" to "That's the last straw, I'm voting Green or writing in Paul Wellstone."