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Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: People trust Joe Biden... they like him on a gut level.. [View all]Gothmog
(147,007 posts)80. Biden's Electability Advantage Will Be Hard to Shake Among Risk-Averse Democrats
Link to tweet
The most obvious is Bidens consistent strength in head-to-head polls against Trump. You can remind people all day long that these are unreliable indicators of how a general-election campaign will actually play out, but they wont be able to ignore them. And Bidens advantage here is significant. There is not a single poll in the RealClearPolitics database of 2020 trial heats between Biden and Trump in which Biden does not lead. His current lead in RCPs polling averages is an enormous 11.5 percent (Sanderss is 7.0 percent, and Warrens is 5.2 percent, but both have trailed Trump in some surveys).
A second factor making Biden Mr. Electable is the widespread belief among pundits and voters alike that, all things being equal, proximity to the political center is a general-election asset. The more we approach a three-candidate nominating contest in which Bidens only real challenge comes from Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, the more Bidens relative moderation will become evident. That may hurt him with some primary voters, but it could at the same time enhance his perceived electability.
A third factor some analysts focus on is the practical ability to win voters the party lost in 2016 either to Trump or to third parties or to the living-room couch. Theres at best limited evidence that Biden is more popular than other Democrats in the much-chewed-over white working-class demographic (especially Obama-Trump voters). But he certainly talks about his focus on these voters a lot, which enhances the perception they are his people. And he certainly has conspicuous strength among African-American voters, whose fall-off in turnout was a big problem for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Biden does not look like a good bet to energize younger voters, but Trump might well do that for him...
Risk-averse is probably the most important term to remember in assessing Democratic voters heading toward 2020. They still dont entirely understand how Hillary Clinton managed to lose to Donald Trump in 2016, but they arent inclined to take anything for granted this time around. And that will make it difficult for candidates other than Biden to convince Democrats their other qualities are worth taking a bit of a risk on. Sure, Biden could in theory blow himself up with some high-profile gaffe that undermines the very premise of his candidacy. But thats not within anyone elses control.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
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I get what you're saying about "most comfortable"... that's how many feel about Bernie too.
InAbLuEsTaTe
Sep 2019
#1
Yup, couldve sworn the DNC has welcomed Bernie as a Democratic candidate & he's embraced it as well.
InAbLuEsTaTe
Sep 2019
#50
Will we ever get to the day when we could occasionally tune out as we did under Obama?
hlthe2b
Sep 2019
#2
I am not hearing from other candidates that they have any realization of the momentous
emmaverybo
Sep 2019
#56
This is an old story. Always a lot of he said she said stuff. Don't buy it, i wouldn't regardless of
Thekaspervote
Sep 2019
#30
It won't work...people know Biden...but now Warren will be marked as a socialist..and as some
Demsrule86
Sep 2019
#47
You do. Many people do. But many of us don't. I look at him and I see that young, good looking,
pnwmom
Sep 2019
#17
So what? I would, too, against Trump. But she did NOT say he'd be her first choice,
pnwmom
Sep 2019
#34
I'm still humbled by the immense trust and faith you placed in President Obama and me.
Gothmog
Sep 2019
#18
Yes, people trust Joe on a gut level, If he is our candidate, he will win. Why?
Stuart G
Sep 2019
#19
I like Joe Biden. But I get a little uncomfortable when you start talking about "gut feelings."
Nitram
Sep 2019
#20
That has not happened despite the media's best efforts...and I don't consider them gaffes
Demsrule86
Sep 2019
#48
it is ASTOUNDING..... that Joe is not tearing anyone else down!!! He is a hero in my book
trueblue2007
Sep 2019
#22
I'm in the 55+ AA Female Demo But Biden Also Has Deep Support with My White Friends/Colleagues
Indykatie
Sep 2019
#27
I don't believe he was wrong...media questioned all these folks looking for this...
Demsrule86
Sep 2019
#49
And you think Obama would have spent whole days for eight years with Biden if his VP were high
emmaverybo
Sep 2019
#57
You're talking about the same Joe Biden Obama selected as VP to appeal to older white voters?
Act_of_Reparation
Sep 2019
#61
He selected him, a seasoned hand, to give him, relatively a newbie, greater credibility as well
emmaverybo
Sep 2019
#65
I never said he wasn't. So was my friend who was teaching the corrupting power of "white privilege"
emmaverybo
Sep 2019
#66
I can read your mind? Fine, no argument. I expressed the view that Biden has used his
emmaverybo
Sep 2019
#67
Washington Post-Opinion: Democrats want to beat Trump. Biden wants to be the one to do it.
Gothmog
Sep 2019
#44
Trust and like-ability. I think Americans also realize how competent Biden is despite the occasional
emmaverybo
Sep 2019
#52
Guess I'm not "people" b/c I happily voted for him x2 for VP(only times I ever had him on my ballot)
RockRaven
Sep 2019
#55
Obviously. some people here don't trust him so much. But, that's not the point...
TreasonousBastard
Sep 2019
#58
We all have a responsibility to stand up and speak out when we see abuse of power.
Gothmog
Sep 2019
#73
Biden's Electability Advantage Will Be Hard to Shake Among Risk-Averse Democrats
Gothmog
Sep 2019
#80